“Grescue” amplifies centrifugal forces in the core zone

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 27 July 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In July, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls from 48.4% to 26.5%, its lowest reading in six months. The reason for this is the rescue of Greece which lets the Hellenic index drop sharply. But against the general trend the EBI increase for Germany and Finland whose government bonds profit from the unresolved euro problems.

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Investors split on euro break-up, but clear on contagion

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 June 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In June, the sentix Euro Break-up Index rises from 41.2% to 48.4%. Investors are thus almost perfectly split into two halves regarding their expectations on countries exiting the euro. In turn, they are much clearer on contagion dangers of which they think that they are barely existing.

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Some calm before the showdown

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 26 May 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In May, the sentix Euro Break-up Index recedes from 49.0% to 41.2%. Investors obviously take – despite Greece’s still unclear future – comments of the Hellenic government seriously that the country wants to keep the common currency. And a default on its debt could still be an option while staying in the euro! At the same time, investors rate dangers of contagion emanating from a possible euro-exit of a country as fading.

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Draghi put to the test: one out of two investors expects a “Grexit”

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 27 April 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In April, the sentix Euro Break-up Index jumps to 49.0% from a previous 36.8%. Thus, European politicians’ promises to pursue the scenario of Greece keeping the euro are not taken at face value by about the half of all investors. In 2012 Mario Draghi calmed down investors with his ultimate commitment to the euro. But is his pledge still valid for Greece today?

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The current policy stabilize the Eurozone, not Greece

Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 March 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The probability for a break-up of the Euro area declined slightly in recent weeks. Nevertheless, with a reading of 36.8% the sentix Euro Break-up index is still on a remarkable high level. The prolongation of the “program” for Greece by the Euro area finance ministers did not make a big difference in terms of Greece. Indeed, it matters for the rest of the Euro member states as the “contagion risk index” shows.

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