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sentix Investmentmeinung 16-2015

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2015 mit Parallelen zu 2005 und 2007

Nach der Jubelstimmung, die wir noch in der Vorwoche zu DAX & Co. messen konnten, folgt nun der Kater. So lautet das Fazit unserer gestrigen Ergebnismail. Müssen wir nun die Hoffnungen auf ein Erreichen neuer DAX-Höchststände fürs Erste begraben? Betrachtet man den Abschwung im Sentiment isoliert, stünden die Aussichten tatsächlich schlecht. Denn ein so massiver Sentimentumschwung – wir sprechen an dieser Stelle von einem Sentimentimpuls – war in der Vergangenheit ein Vorbote für Ungemach am Markt. Wir haben uns die diesbezügliche Statistik genauer angesehen und kommen zu interessanten Ergebnissen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX 50, S&P 500, Nikkei, USD-JPY

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 16-2015

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Sentiment shaken on Equities, but strategic views little changed

Last week’s late sell-off in equity markets appears to have hit sentiment hard, with survey readings based on investors’ views on the near-term outlook dropping from historic highs to modestly negative levels in the space of a week. However, the impact on investors’ views on the medium-term strategic outlook has been negligible. On this front, survey readings remain high-end on indices such as the EuroSTOXX (Page 3). Monthly survey questions looking at investors’ views on asset classes also indicate that respondents have become a little more upbeat on Emerging Equity Markets in the past month, in line with improved sentiment towards Commodities (Chart 3, page 2). It appears that last week has shaken nearterm sentiment on Equities, but not yet stirred concerns on the medium-term.

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Utilities – a contrarian opportunity

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sentix Sector Sentiment for European utilities stocks falls further and now stands close to its all-time low. At the same time the sector’s performance stabilises. As a result, a contrarian opportunity arises.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 15-2015

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Bullishes Sentiment macht den Kurzfristtrend unberechenbarer

Der April gilt traditionell als saisonal starker Monat. Vor allem die erste April-Hälfte tritt dabei positiv in Erscheinung. Dies ist auch in 2015 bislang nicht anders. Die gute Performance der Nach-Oster-Woche hat besonders Eindruck bei den Anlegern hinterlassen und die Stimmungswerte in Europa kräftig gehoben. Damit ist unter Risikogesichtspunkten nunmehr ein kritischeres Urteil zu fällen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX 50, Nikkei, CSI300

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 15-2015

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High optimism on near-term outlook for Equities

The latest sentix survey points to highly elevated levels of optimism among survey participants in terms of the near-term outlook for Equity markets. Sentiment readings for the DAX, EuroSTOXX, Nikkei and chinese equities have now reached twelve month highs. A lot of optimism is built into markets at current levels (see Chart 5, page 3). At the same time, the survey also provides a unique insight into investors’ views on European sectors versus the market. It suggests that investors have become less optimistic on cyclical sectors such as Autos and Industrial Goods & Services, but that the tide of optimism on Construction and Chemicals continues to rise (Chart 2, page 2). At the other end of the sentiment spectrum, pessimism still dominates on Utilities and Energy, albeit readings for Energy are up from recent lows, in line with a less pessimistic view on Crude Oil.

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