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ZfU Kapitalanlegertagung 2018

ZfU Kapitalanlegertagung 2018

Behavioral Finance im Fokus

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Market psychology

Market psychology

The power of emotions

The power of emotions affect prices and trends in the markets.

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Euro Break-up Index

Euro Break-up Index

Will the Euro break-up?

What's the risk that the Euro breaks up? Which country is the most exposed? Whats the routes of infection?

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First mover advantage

First mover advantage

Be the earliest bird in town...

Know what more than 4500 investors expecting worldwide - almost in real time.

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Sentiment research

Sentiment research

Professionally and accurately!

Weekly analysis of current market sentiment in German and English - for active participants free of charge!

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Relaxation à la Trump

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In November, investor concerns over political developments eased slightly. This is mainly due to the fact that geopolitics and the US president are assessed more favorably. An opposite trend is observed in the Brexit theme, which is gaining negative momentum. And even the difficult government formation in Germany weighs on the policy barometer.

The sentix policy barometer may improve slightly in November. Especially declining geopolitical concerns of investors and a better assessment of the topic "Trump" contribute to this. However, less encouraging is the development of the topic "Brexit". This seems to be gaining momentum for investors. Difficult government formation and the possibility of new elections are contributing to the decline in the "elections" sub-index.

sentix politics barometer

Interesting is the development of the assessment of the US president. Although his personal and professional assessment remains critical, investors are increasingly getting used to the situation. In addition, all policy areas are assessed more favorably than in recent months. Above all, the hope for a realization of the tax reduction project is appreciated.

Background

The sentix policy barometer is conducted monthly in the second week of the month. It is intended to show whether and which policy issues from the investor's point of view are decisive for the capital market developments. In addition, we looked at the policy of the current US administration precisely from the current occasion.

The current survey was conducted between November 09th and November 11th, 2017, among more than 1.000 private and institutional investors.

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Boom, boom, boom

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At the beginning of November 2017, the European and global economies are in exceptionally strong shape. The sentix economic index for Euroland rises again to 34 points, the highest since July 2007! Both situation and expec-tations contribute to this positive development. Things are even better in Germany, where we can report all-time highs. However, the upturn is not just focused on Europe. All world regions considered by sentix show fur-ther improvements. The global economy is booming. This should make the question of overheating symptoms more acute.

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Catalonia without any noticeable effect

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The probability of a break-up of the Eurozone measured by the sentix euro break-up index has slightly increased in October. It rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.1%. This slight increase is quite surprising in view of the unrest in Spain. The Spanish sub index has even fallen from 0.9% to 0.6%. A little more concern for investors is Austria. The foreseeable participation of the FPÖ in the government has contributed to an increase in the sub index of Austria in the last two months from under 0.3% to more than 0.8%.

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Very good sentiment on the stock market

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How much the world can change for investors within two months! In the middle of August, we had still measured panic among the investors. Two months later, the mood has changed completely. Now there is almost a euphoric sentiment. In August, the (still unresolved) North Korean conflict was in the center of consideration, now it is the prospect of a further expansive monetary policy and the robust economy that the investor is concerned with.

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Rest before the Bundestag elections. But after that?

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There is peace on the Euro front. At least this was the case before the Bundestag elections. The sentix Euro break-up index dropped slightly again to 7.66% in September. This is the lowest value since July 2014, when the all-time low of the index was reached at 7.61%. All major country indices have yielded in line with this tendency. But whether this peaceful state still holds after the election is questionable.

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