No fear of the Italian election

Written by Manfred Hübner | 26 February 2018
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The forthcoming parliamentary elections in Italy do not cause any discomfort among investors. At least investors do not see this as a threat to the stability of the euro zone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index falls again to an all-time low of only 6.6%! This represents a clear contrast to Renzi's December 2016 referendum vote, when investors were clearly shaking. But with the stable economy in the eurozone, however, stability has also returned to the euro question. But is the election event also becoming a non-event at the markets?

sentix ASR Essentials 08-2018

Written by Patrick Hussy | 25 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Mind the big strategic bias gap between Gold and Oil

The latest sentix survey underlines the large gap that remains in terms of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Gold compared to Crude oil. This in part reflects investors’ increasingly downbeat view on the outlook for oil, with survey readings now close to historic lows. However, the unusually large gap is also consistent with this year’s dollar weakness. On this front, it is notable that in recent weeks optimism on Gold has begun to recede as sentiment on USD/JPY has reversed from lows. Gold sentiment may be further tarnished if the dollar’s revival continues. It could also challenge investors’ polarised views on the medium-term outlook for Gold as compared to oil. See charts 2-4, p2.

Click here for the full report

A single repetition

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 February 2018
Posted in Special research

In December last year, we published an unusual data constellation at this point. While the sentix overconfidence in-dex for equities showed an upper extreme, indicating increased risk exposure, the counterpart for US bonds was at a low. The difference between the two observations produced an extreme signal, which had only been reached once before - on the eve of the financial crisis. Now, in February 2018, another such extreme signal is emerging. A unique repetition!

sentix Investmentmeinung 07-2018

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Wie ungemütlich wird es?

Nach der heftigen Korrektur an der Wall Street Anfang Februar folgte ein ebenso beherzter Rebound. Alles also halb so schlimm wie es scheint. Doch die sentix-Daten sprechen eine andere Sprache. Die Investoren fassen keinen Mut und sehen die Korrektur nicht als reinigendes Gewitter. Stattdessen sendet der Strategische Bias das Signal einen weiteren Vertrauensschwundes.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50, S&P 500, EUR-JPY

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

sentix ASR Essentials 07-2018

Written by Patrick Hussy | 18 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

A dollar rally could tarnish Gold versus Oil

Around a month ago we noted that a lot of positive sentiment was baked into commodities as a grouping, as well as emerging equity markets. The latest sentix survey suggests some of that optimism has receded. In the case of commodities, an interesting divergence has emerged in terms of investors’ medium-term bias on Gold (rising) and Crude Oil (falling sharply). The gap between strategic bias readings on both markets has now reached historic highs, which fits with recent US dollar weakness given Gold’s stronger inverse historic correlation. A bounce in the dollar could see this Gold-Oil gap begin to close, especially with Crude Oil strategic bias readings now at the low-end of their historic range. See charts 2-4, p2.