Data revision notificaton

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Dear data client,

due to a computational error, we have updated the data for the following SNTA series (sentix Positioning information):

- SNTAEOI0

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sentix Investmentmeinung 08-2018

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Strategischer Bias bleibt vor Italien-Wahl schwach

Die auffälligste Entwicklung im sentix-Datenkranz bleibt die Schwäche des Strategischen Bias. Bei viele Aktienmärkten registrieren wir neue 26-Wochen-Tiefs. Diese Entwicklung steht bislang noch in einem gewissen Widerspruch zur konjunkturellen Zuversicht der Anleger. Auch die anstehenden Wahlen in Italien lassen die Anleger kalt.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

No fear of the Italian election

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The forthcoming parliamentary elections in Italy do not cause any discomfort among investors. At least investors do not see this as a threat to the stability of the euro zone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index falls again to an all-time low of only 6.6%! This represents a clear contrast to Renzi's December 2016 referendum vote, when investors were clearly shaking. But with the stable economy in the eurozone, however, stability has also returned to the euro question. But is the election event also becoming a non-event at the markets?

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sentix ASR Essentials 08-2018

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Mind the big strategic bias gap between Gold and Oil

The latest sentix survey underlines the large gap that remains in terms of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Gold compared to Crude oil. This in part reflects investors’ increasingly downbeat view on the outlook for oil, with survey readings now close to historic lows. However, the unusually large gap is also consistent with this year’s dollar weakness. On this front, it is notable that in recent weeks optimism on Gold has begun to recede as sentiment on USD/JPY has reversed from lows. Gold sentiment may be further tarnished if the dollar’s revival continues. It could also challenge investors’ polarised views on the medium-term outlook for Gold as compared to oil. See charts 2-4, p2.

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A single repetition

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In December last year, we published an unusual data constellation at this point. While the sentix overconfidence in-dex for equities showed an upper extreme, indicating increased risk exposure, the counterpart for US bonds was at a low. The difference between the two observations produced an extreme signal, which had only been reached once before - on the eve of the financial crisis. Now, in February 2018, another such extreme signal is emerging. A unique repetition!

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