sentix ASR Essentials 37-2017

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Gold sentiment reverses

We are currently measuring higher sentiment swings in the interest, currencies and commodities markets. Especially Gold reversed its overheated sentiment to a more neutral level. For bonds, we measure a substantial increase of interest rate fears. In the case of equities, however, there are only moderate changes in investor sentiment. A very unusual development occurred in Japan: while the strategic bias for USD-JPY is on the decline, investors are still optimistic for Japanese equities.

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Data revision notification

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Due to a computational error (related to future rolling), we have updated the data for the following SNTO series (sentix Overconfidence Index):

- SNTOBFOI
- SNTOTYOI

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sentix Investmentmeinung 36-2017

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Kein goldener Oktober für Rentenanleger?!

Der Einstieg in den Ausstieg des EZB-Kaufprogramms steht nun wohl verbindlich auf der Tagesordnung. Anders sind die Ausführungen Mario Draghis nicht zu werten. Die nächste EZB-Sitzung im Oktober wird Klarheit bringen. Und damit steht auch fest, dass thematisch Bonds in den nächsten Wochen nur wenig Unterstützung erfahren werden. Die Zeichen stehen auf Korrektur, dies und jenseits des Atlantiks!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: US Bonds, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 36-2017

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Media sentiment hits historic lows

The latest sentix survey provides an insight into investors’ opinion on European sectors as markets move into the final month of Q3. At a market level, investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equities remains on an increasingly positive path, while recent pessimism on the near-term outlook has also subsided. A renewed ‘risk on’ attitude is also evident in survey participants’ sector preferences. The past month has seen revived optimism on cyclical sectors such as Basic Resources, Chemicals and Industrials, alongside a notable turnaround in sentiment on Autos, with readings bouncing off last month’s historic lows. The big losers in the past month have been Insurance and Media. Media is especially unloved, with pessimism reaching levels not previously seen in the past 10Y. See pages 2 and 3 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 35-2017

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Gold mit Stopp-Loss aber ohne Kaufsignal

Unsere Gold-Einschätzung entwickelte sich nicht wie gedacht. Mit dem Break der charttechnischen Widerstandszone bei 1.305 US-Dollar ziehen wir den Stopp-Loss. Eine Kaufindikation für das gelbe Metall können wir dagegen nicht ausmachen. Wir zeigen nachfolgend warum. Auf der Aktienseite verbessert sich das Bild weiter, so dass wir nun auch Japan positiv bewerten, trotz Nordkorea und Yen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Gold, Aktien Japan

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