sentix ASR Essentials 05-2018

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 February 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Inflation expectations bashing bunds sentiment

While investors have become pessimistic on the near-term outlook for equities in the past week, this caution pales in comparison to the deep pessimism evident on bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. A lot of pessimism is baked in bunds, with sentiment readings falling towards the low end of their historic range and near-term neutrality levels close to 2-year lows. Monthly survey questions on ‘themes’ underline the bearish sentiment role being played by inflation expectations. Inflation data are therefore worth watching in the coming weeks: any unexpectedly benign EZ releases could challenge current deep bund pessimism. See Page 2 for charts.

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Vote of no confidence against the GroKo

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 February 2018
Posted in sentix Economic News

In February, economic momentum in the euro zone is weakening somewhat. The total index drops by one point to 31.9 points. While the situation may continue to improve, expectations have fallen to their lowest level since February 2017. Germany plays a major role in this process. The GroKo negotiations are not well received by investors. Expectations drop by more than 6 points! In the rest of the world, however, investors surveyed by sentix believe that the economic situation remains robust.

sentix Investmentmeinung 04-2018

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 January 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

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US-Aktien-Risiken bleiben stark erhöht

Noch immer zeigen die Aktienmärkte in den USA keine Reaktion, obwohl die Risiko-Analyse immer stärkere Signale sendet. Das Research-Portfolio steht in den letzten Wochen unter Druck, doch die Analyse der sentix-Daten spricht weiter dafür, an den Positionen festzuhalten. Bei EUR-JPY bauen wir unsere Positionierung sogar weiter aus.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-JPY

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Headline Index at all-time low!

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 January 2018
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

At the beginning of 2018, the euro zone is still in robust shape. As in the past few months, only a few investors are expecting major unrest in the euro zone. In January 2018, the overall index even fell to a historic low of 6.9%! If you want to look out for possible problem areas, the focus will naturally be on Italy. The forthcoming parliamentary elec-tions are a source of uncertainty. The Italian sub-index is rising against the general trend.

sentix ASR Essentials 04-2018

Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 January 2018
Posted in sentix Weekly

Gold optimism at risk if dollar pessimism recedes

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which investors are downbeat on the US dollar, both in the near and medium-term. This is especially evident in strategic bias readings on USD/JPY, which this week dropped to the lowest level seen since 2012. Deep pessimism on the dollar chimes with investors’ elevated optimism on Gold. In this respect, therefore, it is notable that near-term sentiment on USD/JPY has edged back from recent lows in the last couple of weeks. Elevated optimism on Gold could be challenged if pessimism on the dollar further recedes. See charts 2-4, p2.