sentix ASR Essentials 30-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 17 August 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors on the Defensive

The latest sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment towards equity markets remains undermined by recent reversals. At a market level, survey readings based on investors' opinion on the medium-term outlook have yet to reverse their recent declines. At a sector level, monthly questions on participants' views on European sectors in a relative context also reveal a further swing away from cyclical sectors such as Autos, Construction and Industrials, towards defensives such as Food & Beverage and Healthcare (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). Investors appear to have firmly moved onto a defensive footing in terms of their sector preferences.

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sentix ASR Essentials 29-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 10 August 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Equity uncertainty yet to dampen Emerging Market optimism

The latest sentix survey throws up a couple of notable features. Firstly, there remains an apparent lack of conviction on the medium-term outlook for European bonds, despite high-optimism on the near-term outlook, as bund yields hit historic lows (see page 4). Secondly, there are signs that investors' optimism on the medium-term outlook for equities may be weakening, with survey readings for the EuroSTOXX having fallen back after several weeks of relative resilience (Chart 6, page 3). In comparison, sentiment towards the Emerging Markets has remained relatively upbeat (Charts 2 and 3, page 2). As yet, equity uncertainty has failed to materially curb investors' optimism on medium-term outlook for EMs.

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The Russia Effect – Germany sends a cyclical downturn alarm

Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 August 2014
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix Economic indices leave their mark with a strong drop in August! The total index for Euroland is reduced by 10.1 to now only 2.7 points. The economic expectations put especially strong pressure on the total index. A sur-prising drop by 13.3 points is founded on the EU's economic sanctions against Russia. The German index feels this effect in particular: the total index there drops even more strongly from 29.0 points to now only 17.9 points. Here, expectations lose 13.1 points and are now negative for the first time since November 2012 at -1.3 points. The USA and Asia ex Japan are fighting against the trend – however, their expectational components drop, also. All these slumps are founded in the Ukraine-crisis which is now radiating out more and more strongly. The index for Eastern Europe drops to -12 points and, with that, into recession mode.

sentix ASR Essentials 28-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 August 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment staccato

The sentix Global Investor Survey has created a real sentiment-staccato in the data for this week. The western stock markets have produced a line of negative sentiment extremes. Surprisingly, the medium term confidence isn´t affected by growing fears. A more drastic sentiment picture is measured in EUR/USD: Such a one-sided data constellation hasn´t been observed in the complete sentix history.

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Only three countries left with noteworthy exit probabilities

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 28 July 2014
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) further recedes in July and now stands at 7.6% after 8.5% in the previous month. This, once more, is an all-time low. Only for Greece, Cyprus and – against the backdrop of the Espírito Santo crisis – once again for Portugal investors still see noteworthy euro-exit probabilities.