sentix ASR Essentials 06-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 08 February 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Economic optimism tempers Bond enthusiasm

The latest Sentix survey points to still improving economic expectations for the eurozone and Germany (with the sentix German Expectations indicator reaching record highs this month). However, good news on economic expectations may be bad news for eurozone bonds. A growing belief in a brighter economic outlook for Germany and the Eurozone appears to be tempering survey respondents’ enthusiasm for Bonds. Survey readings indicate that economics as a ‘bond topic’ has become markedly less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). Bonds may be trending higher, but improving macro views appear to be tempering investors’ enthusiasm for Eurozone bonds in the medium-term.

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Ein unverkrampfter Blick nach Griechenland

Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 February 2015
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

There are no translations available.

Schuldenschnitt ja oder nein? Euro-Austritt ja oder nein? Europa im Wandel oder in der Katharsis? Die neu gewählte griechische Regierung hat zwar noch nichts geleistet. Dennoch wirbelt sie Europa gehörig auf. Und das ist gut so! Denn die bisherige Rettungspolitik hat keine nachhaltige Lösung gebracht. Die Eurozone steht vor einer wegweisenden Entscheidung.

sentix ASR Essentials 05-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 February 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

A change of tack on Eurozone versus US Equities?

The latest sentix survey points to an interesting divergence of opinion on Eurozone and US Equity markets. In the case of the DAX Index, investors have become a little less optimistic on the near-term outlook, but remain highly positive from a mediumterm strategic bias perspective. They are also continuing to warm to the mediumterm prospects for the Euro versus the US Dollar. However, in the case of the US market, the past couple of weeks have seen medium-term survey readings on the S&P 500 modestly reverse (see Charts 2 and 3, page 2). It appears that investors are beginning to view Eurozone equities in a more favourable light than their largecap US peers.

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Die Vergreisung

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 January 2015
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

There are no translations available.

Die Demographie ist ein gewichter Faktor für die Wirtschaft. Wie viele Menschen leben und wie alt diese sind bestimmt in hohem Maße die konjunkturelle Dynamik. Dieser Umstand ist weithin bekannt. Weniger bekannt dürfte sein, dass auch Bankbilanzen vergreisen können. Und die EZB trägt mit ihrer Geldpolitik erheblich dazu bei. Auch diese "demographische Änderung" kann erhebliche Folgen haben - für die Wirtschaft, aber vor allem für die Bankkunden!

Investors are nervous, but not really worried

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 26 January 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In January, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) increases by 4.4 percentage points to now 24.3%, its highest reading since April 2013. It is still the situation in Greece which drives the indicator. But interestingly, investors barely see a risk of contagion anymore – an environment which makes government bonds of the periphery vulnerable.