sentix ASR Essentials 35-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 21 September 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

High-optimism on Healthcare constrasts with caution Cyclicals

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors' views on sectors remain caught in the grip of uncertainty about the macro outlook. Questions on participants' opinions about the medium-term outlook for European sectors relative to the market revealed that they remain deeply pessimistic on sectors such as Basic Resources, Autos and Industrials. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors remain especially optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Healthcare (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). Sector sentiment appears to remain set on a more Defensive sector tack relative to Cyclicals.

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Update on the sentix survey timetable

Written by Manfred Hübner | 21 September 2014
Posted in Database news

Starting October 2014, sentix revises its survey timetable. Until now, the sentix Sector Sentiment was surveyed on the 3rd Friday of a month. For database customers using the data in portfolio strategies, this timing is inconvenient. Because especially market neutral strategies will be implemented with future trades, it does mean that the survey date is also the last trading day of the front month in the future contracts. We therefore switch the survey data for the sector sentiment to the 2nd Friday in a month. The sentix Styles will be survey on the 3rd Friday instead.

Alibaba opens IPO investors’ eyes

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 15 September 2014
Posted in Special research

The current sentix Global Investor Survey shows a remarkable development: sentix IPO Senti-ent rises strongly for the first time this year. The improvement of the indicator takes place against the backdrop of the coming US-IPO of Alibaba, a Chinese internet company. This event obviously also has an influence on European investors and lets their readiness to take on new issues rise.

sentix ASR Essentials 34-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 September 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Mind the sentiment gap between Emerging Markets & Commodities

The latest sentix survey throws up an interesting divergence in opinion on the Emerging Markets (EMs) and Commodities. While the tide of optimism continues to rise in the case of markets such as China, sentiment has turned sharply negative on Commodities such as Crude and Gold (see Charts 2-4 on Page 2). This appears odd given sentiment towards both asset classes has historically had a reasonably close relationship. The extent of the current sentiment gap between EMs and Commodities suggests the relationship may be beginning to break down.

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Euro-zone index collapses again – despite Draghi

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 08 September 2014
Posted in sentix Economic News

Despite the new measures taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) last Thursday the composite index for the euro zone collapses. It falls from +2.7 to now only -9.8 points. As both, the assessment of the current situation and investors' 6-month expectations, now have reached negative territory, the indicator signals a new recession for the euro area! This is all the more noteworthy as during Mario Draghi's presidency the ECB has managed on several occasions to turn round investors' economic expectations. Now, this does not seem to work anymore. In this context it is interesting to know that 6-month expectations of the global aggregate have fallen to their lowest level since November 2012, the time when Japan started its "Abenomics" and managed to influence investors' expectations positively. But obviously central banks have currently – against the backdrop of a number of geopolitical conflicts – lost their power to steer investors' economic expectations.