The Russia Effect – Germany sends a cyclical downturn alarm

Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 August 2014
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix Economic indices leave their mark with a strong drop in August! The total index for Euroland is reduced by 10.1 to now only 2.7 points. The economic expectations put especially strong pressure on the total index. A sur-prising drop by 13.3 points is founded on the EU's economic sanctions against Russia. The German index feels this effect in particular: the total index there drops even more strongly from 29.0 points to now only 17.9 points. Here, expectations lose 13.1 points and are now negative for the first time since November 2012 at -1.3 points. The USA and Asia ex Japan are fighting against the trend – however, their expectational components drop, also. All these slumps are founded in the Ukraine-crisis which is now radiating out more and more strongly. The index for Eastern Europe drops to -12 points and, with that, into recession mode.

sentix ASR Essentials 28-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 August 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment staccato

The sentix Global Investor Survey has created a real sentiment-staccato in the data for this week. The western stock markets have produced a line of negative sentiment extremes. Surprisingly, the medium term confidence isn´t affected by growing fears. A more drastic sentiment picture is measured in EUR/USD: Such a one-sided data constellation hasn´t been observed in the complete sentix history.

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Only three countries left with noteworthy exit probabilities

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 28 July 2014
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) further recedes in July and now stands at 7.6% after 8.5% in the previous month. This, once more, is an all-time low. Only for Greece, Cyprus and – against the backdrop of the Espírito Santo crisis – once again for Portugal investors still see noteworthy euro-exit probabilities.

sentix ASR Essentials 27-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 July 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bullish signals from China

sentix data for stocks remain robust. The bullish indication for Chinese equities even offers new opportunities for rising prices. For bonds the picture looks different. The readiness to take profits is high and so is the overconfidence index. On FX markets the focus is back on USD-JPY. Here, the Strategic Bias is the supportive pillar.

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Sentiment for banks touches lowest level since Draghi’s euro commitment

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 22 July 2014
Posted in Special research

sentix Sector Sentiment for European banks falls to its lowest level since July 2012. That was when the euro-zone crisis was close to its climax and urged ECB president Draghi to famously fully commit to the euro. The extremely bad sentiment is now an opportunity for contrarian investors.