Opportunities arise in times of trouble

Written by Julien Mueller | 11 July 2016
Posted in Special research

The European banking crisis worsens in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The sentix Sector Sentiment marks a new all-time-low. However, investors’ impression has reached such an extreme negative value that it could represent a contrarian buy opportunity.

The calm before the trend

Written by Julien Mueller | 20 June 2016
Posted in Special research

Investors’ uncertainty about the Chinese equity market rises to the highest level since November 2015. The sentix time series reveals that comparable neutrality levels were usually a leading indicator for a new market trend.

Fear feels different

Written by Julien Mueller | 13 June 2016
Posted in Special research

“Brexit” polls heavily influence investors’ opinion on European equities. The latest surge in popularity of the “leave” camp accompanied by falling stock prices dampens the mood. Market participants should brace for further falling stock prices as the referendum approaches. Investors’ sentiment has yet to reach negative extreme value.

Buy in May and stay?!

Written by Julien Mueller | 24 May 2016
Posted in Special research

The latest sentix Global Investor Survey reveals an exceptionally positive signal for the German equity market. The prospects for a new bull market are increasing as especially the medium-term market expectation of institutional investors is on the rise.

The sentix Strategic Bias rises to a new 13 weeks high as it expresses regained medium-term conviction of German equities. Especially institutional investors’ confidence gets a boost. The sub-index rises 13 points in comparison to previous weeks’ survey. It is in principle a bullish market indication. However, it contradicts the conventional market wisdom “sell in May”.

“Sell in May” describes the tendency of some investors to avoid period from May to October. In contrast, the increase of the sentix Strategic Bias points out that investors mentally prepare to buy instead to sell (refer to Background for a detailed explanation). Rising confidence, especially among institutional investors, is “apparently” neither caused by price indication nor by the news. Therefore, the latest signal should be taken seriously as emotions obviously were not the cause. Based on our statistical analysis, investors can theoretically expect an increase of around 2.3% over the next 16 weeks, on average, each time investors’ confidence has reached a comparable level.

Background

The sentix Strategic Bias (investors' six-month market confidence) is conducted on a weekly basis since 2001 as part of the sentix Global Investor Survey. It reflects the strategic view of market participants as well as their fundamental convictions and perceptions of value for a given market. As this indicator represents investors' general willingness to buy or sell it should not be interpreted as a contrarian signal. Rather it is usually leading the market by several weeks.
In the latest sentix Global Investor Survey was conducted from 19-May-2016 to 21-May-2016. 1032 individual and institutional investors took part in it.

Investors insure against insurance stocks

Written by Julien Mueller | 19 May 2016
Posted in Special research

Negative stock price developments of European insurance companies cause frustration among the investment community. The sentix Sector Sentiment for European insurance stocks falls to a 12-month low in May. A potential buy opportunity could emerge.

Opportunities arise in times of trouble

The calm before the trend

Fear feels different

Buy in May and stay?!

Background

Investors insure against insurance stocks

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