Sentiment for banks touches lowest level since Draghi’s euro commitment

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sentix Sector Sentiment for European banks falls to its lowest level since July 2012. That was when the euro-zone crisis was close to its climax and urged ECB president Draghi to famously fully commit to the euro. The extremely bad sentiment is now an opportunity for contrarian investors.

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sentix ASR Essentials 26-2014

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Geopolitics of no interests to investors

Stock markets are still not impressed by the diverse old and new stress factors. A moderately bearish sentiment and a positive and stable strategic bias reflect investors who have sorrows in the short-term but are convinced about the stock performance in the medium-term. As far as bonds are concerned high spirits dominate the markets while the extraordinary constellation for EUR-USD prevails.

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Investors turn their backs at smaller companies

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The results of the current sentix Global Investor Survey show that investors' risk appetite is waning. A very clear example here is the declining preference for stocks of smaller companies as mir-rored by the sentix Small Caps Index. This index falls in July and thus signals that more and more investors are turning their backs at smaller capitalisations – with the risk of a spill-over to the rest of the market.

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sentix ASR Essentials 25-2014

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Commodities optimism on the up

The sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment towards Commodities continues to improve. At an asset class level, sentiment readings are steadily pulling away from their 2014 lows (see Chart 3, page 2). At a market level, the latest survey revealed sharp improvement in short and medium-term sentiment readings for Gold (Chart 2). This improved tone of sentiment towards Commodities is consistent with the more optimistic views on the outlook for Emerging Markets that have emerged in recent months, though in the near-term survey participants have become a little less upbeat on the medium-term prospects for the Chinese market (Chart 4).

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sentix Market Profiles: Desperately looking for believers in the euro

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The new sentix Market Profiles which shed a light on investors' expectations for the second half of the year 2014 show that forex market participants can easily be wounded at the current juncture. Expectations for EUR-USD have become extremely tilt to the downside. This represents an upside risk for the common currency! For stocks investors have longer-term a positive bias but in the short run there is potential for surprises on the upside, too.

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