sentix ASR Essentials 43-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Cyclicals sentiment upswing

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors’ views on sectors have begun to shift in the past month. On one hand, survey respondents have become less cautious on the six month outlook for Cyclical sectors such as Industrial Goods & Services, Autos and Chemicals. Sentiment towards Basic Resources has also modestly improved, in contrast to Energy, where pessimism still dominates. On the other hand, they have become less optimistic on the prospects for Telecoms and Healthcare versus the market (see Charts 2 to 4, page 2). Deep pessimism on Cyclical sectors versus Defensives may be beginning to ease.

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TV-Hinweis: sentix-Analyse im DAF

10 November 2014
Posted in sentix Intern

Heute war sentix-Geschäftsführer Manfred Hübner zu Gast im Deutschen Anlegerfernsehen. Im Gespräch mit Antje Erhard erläuterte er u.a. die neuesten Ergebnisse des sentix Konjunkturindex.

HIer geht es zum Video

Expectations downtrend stopped

Written by Patrick Hussy | 09 November 2014
Posted in sentix Economic News

Since August there was a strong downtrend of the economic expectations for all of the important economies. This trend is stopped now. The latest announcements by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) let investors' 6-month-expectations rise again visibly. This is rather remarkable as it recently looked as if the ECB would have lost its power to turn economic expectations round. But also for the US – where the central bank is on a different path – the composite index improves significantly. All in all, fears of a free fall of the world econ-omy are banned for the moment. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if the current month's rise in economic expectations is just a one-off or a more important turn to the positive. The sentix data justify cautious optimism, but not more than that.

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sentix ASR Essentials 42-2014

Written by Patrick Hussy | 09 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

A less bond-bullish view of macro themes

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors remain optimistic on the mediumterm, more strategic outlook for eurozone bonds, albeit readings are down on their early-October highs. In the near-term, however, sentiment is more neutral, while the survey also reveals a high degree of 'neutrality' on the near-term outlook. Such uncertainty is consistent with investors' views on the macro backdrop, with investment themes such as inflation and economics being seen as having become a little less bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). The tide of medium-term optimism on bonds is still rising. However, beneath the sentiment surface, it is also apparent that a degree of uncertainty on the near-term has emerged.

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sentix ASR Essentials 41-2014

Written by Manfred Hübner | 02 November 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

BOJ moves – seen as good for Nikkei; bad for Yen

The latest sentix survey underlines the extent to which the BOJ's surprise stimulus measures have impacted sentiment towards Japanese markets. In terms of the near-term outlook for the Nikkei 225, sentiment readings have spiked sharply higher, albeit they are shy of historic highs. While the initial impact on survey participants' views on the medium-term outlook has been less dramatic, investors are becoming gradually more upbeat from a more strategic perspective, after a latesummer setback in sentiment. On the other side of the sentiment divide, pessimism on the Yen versus the USD has also increased markedly, with near-term sentiment readings reaching historic highs on USD/JPY (while USD optimism is also high-end in EUR/USD). Investors seem to view BOJ moves as good for Nikkei, but bad for Yen.

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