„Grexit“ more probable despite new programme

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 02 March 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The sentix Euro Break-up Index for February rises strongly from 24.3% to 38.0%. Despite the soluattion which was found last week for Greece ever more investors expect the Mediterranean country to leave the euro soon. Also, for Cyprus the exit probability increases markedly. And, in the background, the lately surprisingly firm confidence in Portugal and Spain is eroding, too.

Desperate investors: long-term bonds as popular as never before

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 02 March 2015
Posted in Special research

Record-low yields drive investors into ever longer maturities of German government bonds. This situation is mirrored by the sentix Curve Preference Index: While investors’ dislike of mid-term bonds has reached a new extreme, market participants now find bonds with maturities of more than 10 years as attractive as never before – although their yields have touched new all-time lows, too. This shows how desperate bond investors’ are in the current low-yield environment.

sentix ASR Essentials 09-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 March 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors still upbeat on Equities; but less certain on medium-term

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors remain relatively positive on the outlook for equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. Indeed, monthly questions covering investors’ positioning also indicate that over-investment in European equities versus the long-term average level remains elevated. That said there are a couple of straws in the wind which point to a change of sentiment tack. For one thing, readings on the medium-term strategic outlook for the EuroSTOXX have begun to edge back from recent highs, though they remain high-end. For another, sentix medium-term Neutrality indicators have begun to back away from recent lows. This suggests that there is a little less certainty on the strategic outlook for the EuroSTOXX among those investors polled (see Pages 2 and 3).

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Confidence in the euro rises

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 23 February 2015
Posted in Special research

Confidence in the euro rises strongly. This is shown by the increase in the sentix Strategic Bias for the EUR-USD currency pair, one outstanding result of the latest sentix Global Investor Survey. The index reaches its highest reading since November 2013. At the same time, more and more investors (now 39%) expect Greece to leave the euro. The consequent attitude of the European partners towards the new Greek government has thus served as a support for the common currency.

Ergebnisse des sentix Global Investor Survey (KW 08-2015)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 22 February 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Die Stimmung an Europas Börsen bleibt gut, kühlt sich aber im Vergleich zur Vorwoche leicht ab. Es verwundert, wie robust sich die Börsen präsentieren, obwohl die Grexit-Wahrscheinlichkeit deutlich angestiegen ist. Es dürften die mittelfristigen Perspektiven sein, welche die Anleger bei Laune halten: Der Strategische Bias bleibt hoch, wobei insbesondere die japanische Börse und die US-Technologiewerte deutlicher in der Anlegergunst zulegen können.

Lesen Sie hier die Ergebniskommentierung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Besser ein Ende mit Schrecken als Schrecken ohne Ende

Griechenlands Schuldenproblem beschäftigt die Politik, die Medien und die Anleger mehr denn je. Unsere wöchentliche Sonderbefragung zur Grexit-Wahrscheinlichkeit stieg zum Wochenschluss von 32% auf 39%. Erstaunlich ist hierbei die Gelassenheit der Aktienmärkte. Der Strategische Bias bleibt hoch, Ängste lassen sich über das Sentiment keine messen. Es stellt sich die Frage, ob die Anleger „sehenden Auges“ in ihr „Verderben“ laufen.

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