sentix-Analyse September 2015 im DAF

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sentix-Geschäftsführer Manfred im Hübner im DAF-Marktgesprächsentix-Geschäftsführer im DAF-Marktgespräch zur aktuellen Entwicklung der sentix-Indikatoren und die Auswirkung auf die Finanzmärkte.

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Attention: Investors lacking risk awareness on equities!

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The latest sentix data set reveals an alarming discrepancy: investors’ fundamental belief in equity prices is still rising despite falling economic expectations. Potential risks are especially lurking in the US market. Investors are turning a blind eye on possible adverse effects for equities as economic optimism fades.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 36-2015

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Fehlende Ernsthaftigkeit?!

Die Aktienmärkte setzen ihre Konsolidierung nach den scharfen August-Kurseinbrüchen fort. Überraschend für viele Investoren, aber durchaus im Einklang mit unserer Analyse an dieser Stelle von vor zwei Wochen, verläuft dieser Konsolidierungsprozess weit weniger positiv, als es den Bullen lieb sein kann. Dennoch führt dies nicht zu einem größeren Umdenken im Anlegerlager: der Strategische Bias bleibt positiv. Traditionell ist eine solche robuste Grundüberzeugung für uns ein gutes Vorzeichen, da damit eine Kaufbereitschaft eng verbunden ist. Doch dieses Mal könnte dies anders sein!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-USD

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Economic expectations collapse globally

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In September, the sentix Economic Indices drop significantly driven by strongly falling indicators for Japan and for Asia ex Japan. Against the background of the turbulences in China investors cut back strongly their assessments and expectations regarding these regions' economies. Furhermore, the rest of the world enters the maelstrom. While for Latin America and Eastern Europe ever darker clouds gather now also the economic expectations for the hitherto stability anchors, the US and the euro area, fall markedly.

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sentix ASR Essentials 36-2015

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Sentiment setback for Equities; Bunds bolstered by macro views

Investor sentiment towards equities remains in the grip of still volatile markets, with survey readings on indices such as the EuroSTOXX retracing some of the previous week’s gains. That said, the survey also suggests that survey participants have become a little less downbeat on equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. It may be that investors are beginning to see some value in markets emerging from their summer setbacks (see Charts 5-7, page 3). In the case of Bunds, investor optimism is down from recent highs, though the upturn in survey readings based on investors’ views on Bund in the medium-term remains intact. This is consistent with survey results that suggest investors view the economic backdrop as becoming more bond-bullish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2).

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