sentix ASR Essentials 32-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 09 August 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Heightened uncertainty on Equities in near-term

The latest Sentix survey throws up a couple of interesting angles on Eurozone equities and bonds. In the case of equities, elevated Neutrality readings point to a high degree of underlying uncertainty on the near-term outlook for equity indices such as the EuroSTOXX, even though sentiment readings are modestly positive (see Charts 5-7, page 3). This suggests there is potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks. In the case of bonds, investors are less upbeat than they were earlier in the year, from both a near-term and medium-term strategic perspective. However, sentiment has begun to revive in recent weeks. Monthly survey questions focussed on investors views on the economic outlook suggest this recent revival has reflected a growing belief that the macro backdrop has become less bond-bearish on a six month view (see Chart 3, page 2). Macro continues to matter for bonds.

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Investors in the oil market view the downtrend to continue

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 August 2015
Posted in Special research

Since early May, oil prices have come under pressure again. Meanwhile, the lows from the beginning of the year have been reached again. This has not only pushed the sentiment to a bearish extreme but now also means that investors tend to extrapolate the negative trend. The sentix Overconfidence Index indicates this. This could support the oil prices in the short term.

sentix Investmentmeinung 31-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 03 August 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Contrarian-Signale an den Rohstoffmärkten

Die Rohstoffmärkte stehen gewaltig unter Druck. Während Gold und Silber bereits ihre bisherigen Jahrestiefs unterschritten haben, notiert das Rohöl derzeit genau wieder auf den Tiefständen von Januar dieses Jahres. Parallel dazu hat sich die Stimmung massiv eingetrübt und inzwischen pessimistische Extremwerte erreicht. Das alleine reicht als Contrarian-Signal jedoch nur dann aus, wenn sich gleichzeitig eine Wertwahrnehmung einstellt. Mit Blick auf die sentix-Headline-Indizes für den Strategischen Bias von Gold und Öl kommt da noch keine Hoffnung auf. Interessant wird ein Blick in die Details.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Aktien China, Gold, Öl

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sentix ASR Essentials 31-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 02 August 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Broken China sentiment

The latest sentix survey underlines the degree to which investors have lost faith in the Chinese equity market after recent sharp index reversals. Sentiment readings remain in a downward spiral and are now at historic lows. At the same time, survey participants are becoming ever-more downbeat on the market in terms of their medium-term strategic bias (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). This latter development may be constraint for any rally in the market from its deep pessimism condition. We noted last week that widespread pessimism on Emerging Equity Markets as an asset class chimes with negative sentiment on Commodities. However, the latest survey provides a modest beacon amidst the prevailing Commodity gloom, with near-term pessimism on Gold having become a little less extreme in the past week (Chart 4).

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“Grescue” amplifies centrifugal forces in the core zone

Written by Sebastian Wanke | 27 July 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

In July, the sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) falls from 48.4% to 26.5%, its lowest reading in six months. The reason for this is the rescue of Greece which lets the Hellenic index drop sharply. But against the general trend the EBI increase for Germany and Finland whose government bonds profit from the unresolved euro problems.