sentix ASR Essentials 18-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 08 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Nikkei knocked back by deteriorating macro expectations

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of Japan, a bounce-back in economic expectations as Q1 drew to a close proved short-lived, with monthly readings weakening in the past month to -8.5 (from -5.5). This chimes with a reversal in readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on the Nikkei 225, which are drifting back towards recent lows after briefly recovering in early April. Investors’ views on the Japanese equity market remain clouded by concern about its economic outlook. The only beacon amidst the gloom on Japan is provided by FX, with signs that survey participants have become a little less negative on USD/JPY in the medium-term (see Page 2 for charts).

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Japan and the US contra the emerging markets

Written by Patrick Hussy | 08 May 2016
Posted in sentix Economic News

Economic expectations for the Eurozone remain resilient as investors perception about the future development of Japan continues to deteriorate. Moreover, in May investors get wary about the situation of the US economy. Emerging markets proceed their recovery. The headline index for the Eurozone marginally raises by +0.5 points to +6.2 points. Overall investors draw a rather non-dynamic picture about the economic condition of the Eurozone as expectations remain unchanged and the perception of the current situation with a change of +1 point displays weak momentum.

Loss aversion vs. persuasion

Written by Julien Mueller | 03 May 2016
Posted in Special research

The reaction of investors to an absence of further quantitative easing by the Japanese central bank has been significant. The latest sentix Sentiment for the USD/JPY exchange rate drops by 31 percentage points. Albeit investors’ confidence in the USD remains stable. A promising setup for a rising USD/JPY exchange rate over the medium term.

sentix Investmentmeinung 17-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 03 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Außergewöhnliche Positionsdaten

Seit unserer Einschätzungsänderung für das Rohöl der Sorte Brent Mitte März haben sich die Preise weiter um fast 12 Prozent nach oben bewegt. Bislang war dies also eine klare Fehleinschätzung. Doch die Risiken für die Öl-Bullen haben sich seitdem keineswegs verringert. Obwohl die Grundüberzeugung weiter schwindet, werden die spekulativen Öl-Kaufpositionen weiter ausgefahren. Wir bleiben deshalb bei unserer Erwartung einer spürbaren Korrektur der Ölpreise.

Geänderte Einschätzung: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 17-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 01 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Optimism on Crude not matched by investors’ strategic bias

The latest sentix survey indicates that investor optimism on Gold and Crude Oil has continued to grow as commodity prices have headed higher over the past month, helped by US dollar weakness and more encouraging signs on China and the global macro outlook. In the case of Crude, Brent looks on track to re-test $50 as we move into May, supported by a rising tide of near-term optimism. However, survey readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude have ticked lower in the past week and remain well down on their 2016 highs. While investors are upbeat on the near-term outlook for Oil, they are much less positive on its mediumterm prospects (see Charts 3-4, P2).