sentix ASR Essentials 49-2015

Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 December 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Macro optimism challenges medium-term positivity on Bunds

The latest sentix survey was set against a backdrop of markets that were digesting disappointment on ECB stimulus, along with OPEC news and robust US payrolls data. The most notable result was a big improvement in sentiment on Euro versus US Dollar, though survey readings are still only back to relatively neutral levels. On the other side of the sentiment divide, near-term sentiment towards Bunds has deteriorated. This chimes with the December sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone which revealed a further improvement in the headline index (+0.6 to +15.7), as well as survey readings that indicate ‘economics’ is seen a becoming more bond bearish as an ‘investment theme’. Macro views may provide a challenge to investors’ more positive opinion on Bunds from a medium-term strategic perspective. See Page 2 for charts.

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No ECB money, no funny

Written by Manfred Hübner | 06 December 2015
Posted in sentix Economic News

Economic expectations for the Eurozone continue to rise contrary to the global trend. Amid slightly lower growth in global economic momentum, the Eurozone stands out. Explanations should be found in the latest ECB statement. The December round of ECB stimulus felt short of expectations, however, the embracement of ECB’s “whatever it takes massage” has worked yet again. Without more ECB stimulus the Eurozone would most likely be in accordance to the global outlook.

The “Fixit” lines up for the “Exit” ensemble

Written by Julien Mueller | 30 November 2015
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) increases slightly in November. Following months of significant easing, the latest survey shows that 11.7% of respondents consider a break-up of the Eurozone within the next six months as likely. The list of mentioned “exit” candidates reaches an alarming level. Prospects of a possible Finnish referendum brings a “Fixit” into play.

sentix Investmentmeinung 48-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Santa Mario lässt Anlegerherzen höher schlagen

Was in den Köpfen eines Notenbankers vorgeht, entzieht sich unserer Vorstellungskraft. Was in den Köpfen der Anleger vorgeht, ermitteln wir dagegen recht genau. Und da tut sich einiges. Das Belohnungszentrum der Anleger wird von den „Möglichkeiten“, welche die EZB hat oder zu haben scheint, schon vor Vollzug konkreter Maßnahmen kräftig stimuliert. Bekanntlich ist die Vorfreude die schönste aller Freuden. Bleibt nur zu hoffen, dass Santa Mario auch wie versprochen liefert. Denn nach der EZB-Sitzung dürfte es an Freudennachrichten eher wieder mangeln.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Alle Aktienmärkte, EUR-USD

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sentix ASR Essentials 48-2015

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 November 2015
Posted in sentix Weekly

Stretched sentiment on FX and Equities as CB meetings loom large

The latest sentix survey provides a timely insight into investors’ thinking heading into a key period for markets, with December’s ECB and Fed meetings having cast an increasingly long shadow across markets in recent weeks. The survey highlights several areas in which sentiment has become notably stretched. In FX, investors remain extremely pessimistic on the near-term outlook for the Euro versus the US dollar. This is in marked contrast to the high optimism that is evident on equity indices such as the EuroSTOXX. Such stretched sentiment suggests a lot of central bank (CB) news is already built into FX and equity markets, which may leave them vulnerable to any disappointment. In the case of equities, the survey also suggests investors have become highly uncertain about the medium-term strategic outlook (Charts 2-4, P2). It could make for a volatile ride for markets in the coming weeks.