sentix Investmentmeinung 15-2018

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Panik im Ölmarkt

Der Ölpreis hat erneut ein neues Jahres-Verlaufshoch erreicht. Obwohl die Grundüberzeugung schwach und die Positionierung der Anleger rekordhoch ist, überraschen die Ölnotierungen ein ums andere Mal auf der oberen Seite. Dies belastet unsere Researchportfolio-Performance. Wird es Zeit für den Stopp-Loss?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, US Bonds

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sentix Survey results (15-2018)

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Focus on automobiles and oil stocks

The outstanding feature of the current survey remains the weak basic trust of investors in equities. In addition, the calm mood of investors is surprising when viewed in the context of geopolitical tensions. Overall, strategic uncertainty is rising sharply. An interesting data situation has arisen around oil and in the sector sentiment, especially with regard to automobiles and oil stocks.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 14-2018

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Technik contra Bias

Eine spannende Divergenz besteht bereits seit längerem bei EUR-USD. Während viele strategische Indikatoren deutlich pro US-Dollar sprechen, ist von einer USD-Stärke im charttechnischen Bild von EUR-USD nicht viel zu sehen. In dieser Woche hat sich der Strategische Bias erneut abgeschwächt, so dass wir die Gelegenheit nutzen, unsere EUR-USD-Position einer näheren Betrachtung zu unterziehen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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Sink flight

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After the declines in expectations had already indicated a turnaround in the previous months, a significant eco-nomic slowdown must now be assumed. All regions of the world are on a downward economic trend. Expectations in the Euro zone are also negative for the first time since July 2016. The customs disputes, fueled by US President Donald Trump, are leaving their traces. The emerging markets are holding up marginally better, even if the same basic trend prevails there.

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sentix Survey results (14-2018)

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Strategic bias remains tarnished

Investors' basic confidence in equities remains tarnished. Trump's trade agenda is poorly received, as he risks hitting the global economy badly. What weighs on equities increasingly supports bonds. Also, with EUR-USD something is happening: the strategic bias decreases noticeably. In view of the record high positioning of the euro, this is a warning signal.

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