sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

New year, old problems

We wish all our readers a Happy New Year. However, the ‘first mover’ among the economic indicators is not yet showing any new momentum. In the eurozone, the economic engine is at risk of freezing up permanently. The situation values fall by a full index point to -29.5 points. At least expectations are rising slightly, so that the over-all index, at -17.7 points, indicates only a small decline. A stabilisation at an insufficiently weak level. By contrast, the US economy remains robust, even though the Trump euphoria has cooled. Slightly positive signals can be re-ported from Latin America. This is likely to be largely due to the first successes of the liberal President of Argentina, Javier Milei.

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No mood of optimism in the EU, Trump mania in the USA

In December, there are weak economic signals for the eurozone from the first mover. The overall index for the eurozone fell by 4.6 points to -17.5 points, the lowest value since November 2023. Both the current situation and expectations values fell. There is also serious disappointment to report in the German data: Following the announcement of new elections to the German Bundestag, there is no mood of optimism. The assessment of the current situation fell to -50.8 points, the lowest index level since June 2020, meaning that the recession remains omnipresent, especially as expectations also fell by 0.8 points. Conversely, the US data stands out positively. Investors are expecting strong momentum following the inauguration of the new president. This reaction can really be described as ‘Trump mania’.

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Germany's crisis is not shocking

The news is coming thick and fast in Germany at the moment. It has taken a long time for the economy and the media to wake up and increase the pressure on politics. Perhaps it is the hope that this will lay the groundwork for better times ahead. In any case, even the German economic data is improving a little. The composite index for Germany rose by 1.7 points. For the euro zone, this also means a slight recovery in the overall index to -12.8 points. Investors are also optimistic about the US economy in view of the upcoming US presidential elections, with the overall index rising for the third time in a row. China, on the other hand, still has to prove itself.

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China stimulus provides (moderate) tailwind

The downward economic trend has been halted for the time being. All regions of the world are showing signs of improvement: the overall index for the eurozone rose from -15.4 to -13.8 points in October after three consecutive declines. While the current situation index in the eurozone once again plumbed a new low for the year, the expectations index rose to -3.8 points. The eurozone economy is thus starting its next attempt to find its way out of recession/stagnation. The German economy remains in recession mode for the time being. On a positive note, however, the expectation values show an improvement with a plus of 6.8 points. The domestic economy is benefiting from the global economic trend: Asia ex Japan (China) in particular is showing positive momentum. However, the USA and Japan are also signalling an economic revival.

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Germany chaos

The drama surrounding the German economy is heading for another climax in September. The situation values plummeted by a whopping 5.3 points to -48 points. The recession is raging ever stronger. Tragically, the expectation values are also falling, demonstrating the hopelessness of investors looking at the EU heavyweight. Although the overall eurozone index is not immune in this context, the decline is comparatively small at -1.5 points. Nevertheless, the eurozone is struggling with dangerous recessionary tendencies ‘thanks to Germany’. The situation in the rest of the world is also weakening, but investors here are somewhat more optimistic in their expectations.

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