No mood of optimism in the EU, Trump mania in the USA

In December, there are weak economic signals for the eurozone from the first mover. The overall index for the eurozone fell by 4.6 points to -17.5 points, the lowest value since November 2023. Both the current situation and expectations values fell. There is also serious disappointment to report in the German data: Following the announcement of new elections to the German Bundestag, there is no mood of optimism. The assessment of the current situation fell to -50.8 points, the lowest index level since June 2020, meaning that the recession remains omnipresent, especially as expectations also fell by 0.8 points. Conversely, the US data stands out positively. Investors are expecting strong momentum following the inauguration of the new president. This reaction can really be described as ‘Trump mania’.

Full report December 2024

Headlines of the month

  • The overall index for the eurozone fell by 4.6 points to -17.5 points in December. This is the lowest value since November 2023, with both the situation and expectations values falling. The current situation index in particular plummeted into the deep red at -28.5 points, the lowest value since November 2022.
  • Severe disappointment in the German data: After the announcement of new elections to the German Bundestag, there is no mood of optimism. Current assessments fall to -50.8 points, the lowest index level since June 2020 (!). The recession remains omnipresent, especially as expectations also fell by 0.8 points.
  • Conversely, the US data stands out positively. Investors are expecting significant impetus from the new incumbent. The overall index for the US rose by 5.7 points to +21.6 points, driven by almost similar increases in the current condi-tions and expectations. This reaction can really be described as ‘Trump mania’.

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