New year, old problems

We wish all our readers a Happy New Year. However, the ‘first mover’ among the economic indicators is not yet showing any new momentum. In the eurozone, the economic engine is at risk of freezing up permanently. The situation values fall by a full index point to -29.5 points. At least expectations are rising slightly, so that the over-all index, at -17.7 points, indicates only a small decline. A stabilisation at an insufficiently weak level. By contrast, the US economy remains robust, even though the Trump euphoria has cooled. Slightly positive signals can be re-ported from Latin America. This is likely to be largely due to the first successes of the liberal President of Argentina, Javier Milei.

Full report January 2025

Headlines of the month

  • The year 2025 begins as 2024 ended for the eurozone. The overall index remains at -17.7 points, the lowest value since November 2023. The situation assessment again falls significantly to the worst value since October 2022. The economic engine is in danger of being stalled further.
  • The German economy continues to be largely responsible for the plight of the eurozone. The situation remains recessive at -50.8 points. Equally worrying are the weak expectations and a federal government that is threatening to sink into electoral chaos.
  • In the USA, the Trump mania is cooling down somewhat before the inauguration of the new US president. However, the US economy remains robust. The Japan values improve slightly thanks to the weak yen. Latin America also records slight index increases.

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