10 March 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

The announcement of debt-financed armaments programmes (EU and Germany) and infrastructure investments (Germany) has investors positively euphoric about further economic development. The sentix economic index for the euro area rises by 9.8 points to -2.9 points. At the same time, we are witnessing a historic crash in US eco-nomic indicators, the likes of which we have only seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The US expectations index falls for the third time in a row by 25.8 points to -17.8 points. How realistic and sustainable are both investor-designed scenarios?

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09 February 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

The "first mover" among the economic indicators reflects somewhat more confidence for the eurozone in February. The overall index rose from -17.7 points to -12.7 points. Although the assessment of the current situation remains in the deep red zone, it also increased by 4.0 points. Economic expectations for the next 6 months, on the other hand, rose more dynamically by +6.0 points and exceeded the magic zero line for the first time since July 2024 with an index level of +1.0 points. The German economy is also benefiting from this confidence. Expectations have improved by +8.0 points, while the situation assessment remains recessive. Hopes are based on a political turnaround after the federal elections on 23rd February 2025. Internationally, the outlook is also improving: in the US, the economic picture remains robust. The figures for Japan and the Asia ex Japan region have also risen. The renewed rise in Latin America and the signs of easing in Eastern Europe are also striking.

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05 January 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

We wish all our readers a Happy New Year. However, the ‘first mover’ among the economic indicators is not yet showing any new momentum. In the eurozone, the economic engine is at risk of freezing up permanently. The situation values fall by a full index point to -29.5 points. At least expectations are rising slightly, so that the over-all index, at -17.7 points, indicates only a small decline. A stabilisation at an insufficiently weak level. By contrast, the US economy remains robust, even though the Trump euphoria has cooled. Slightly positive signals can be re-ported from Latin America. This is likely to be largely due to the first successes of the liberal President of Argentina, Javier Milei.

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08 December 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

In December, there are weak economic signals for the eurozone from the first mover. The overall index for the eurozone fell by 4.6 points to -17.5 points, the lowest value since November 2023. Both the current situation and expectations values fell. There is also serious disappointment to report in the German data: Following the announcement of new elections to the German Bundestag, there is no mood of optimism. The assessment of the current situation fell to -50.8 points, the lowest index level since June 2020, meaning that the recession remains omnipresent, especially as expectations also fell by 0.8 points. Conversely, the US data stands out positively. Investors are expecting strong momentum following the inauguration of the new president. This reaction can really be described as ‘Trump mania’.

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