sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Asia makes it better!

The rising number of positive PCR test results is causing politicians to fear an uncontrolled spread of the corona virus. Although the serious consequences of a lockdown on economic development were experienced in March, most governments in Europe are going down the path of renewed contact restrictions. Although these do not have the same negative effect as in March, they do dampen the economic recovery process. Surprisingly, however, the effect on the sentix business cycle index is surprisingly limited at -1.7 points on an overall index of -10 points. The reason for this "mild lockdown" is probably the positive dynamics in Asia and the USA.

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Asia continues to pick up, Euroland stagnating

The economic recovery in Euroland takes a breather in October. After five successive improvements, the sentix overall economic index for the euro zone fell marginally by -0.3 points to -8.3 points. However, the current situation continues to improve, reaching its highest level since March 2020. The data does not reveal any significant risk element in the short term, as the expectations index remains at a higher level despite a decline of 2 points. The outlook for Germany looks somewhat better than for the euro area as a whole. There are positive developments to report, especially from Asia ex Japan and the US.

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Fifth consecutive increase

The economic recovery, which has been observable globally since May 2020, continues in September. In Euro-land, but also in many other regions, we are measuring the fifth consecutive rise in the overall indices. A positive aspect is that the expectation values remain stable, i.e. the improvement is largely driven by the current situa-tion. However, these values are still largely in negative territory, meaning that the recessionary tendencies have not yet been fully overcome. In an international comparison, Switzerland and Asia ex Japan stand out.

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The current situation is moving along

In August, the sentix overall index for the eurozone economy climbed by +4.8 to -13.4 points for the fourth time in a row. The current situation values increased by 8.2 points, but are still in recession at -41.3 points. At +19.3 points, expectations remain stably positive, meaning that the economic recovery should continue. We also measure the fourth consecutive improvement for Germany. The current situation values increased by 10 points month-on-month and now stand at -30.8 points. Internationally, the Asian region is leading the improvement: The overall index for Asia ex-Japan is even above zero. The recovery in the USA and Latin America remains disappointing.

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Third consecutive increase

The sentix economic indices for the euro zone and many other regions improved in July for the third time in a row. The Euroland overall index rose by 6.6 points to -18.2 points. The biggest leap forward was made by the values for Switzerland. Here the overall index rises from -14.4 points to -1.6 points! Nevertheless, too much optimism seems out of place. On the one hand, expectations are falling slightly in almost all regions. On the other hand, investors continue to assume that the economic slump caused by the Corona crisis will not be offset within a year!

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