Germany chaos

Written by Manfred Hübner | 09 September 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The drama surrounding the German economy is heading for another climax in September. The situation values plummeted by a whopping 5.3 points to -48 points. The recession is raging ever stronger. Tragically, the expectation values are also falling, demonstrating the hopelessness of investors looking at the EU heavyweight. Although the overall eurozone index is not immune in this context, the decline is comparatively small at -1.5 points. Nevertheless, the eurozone is struggling with dangerous recessionary tendencies ‘thanks to Germany’. The situation in the rest of the world is also weakening, but investors here are somewhat more optimistic in their expectations.

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sentix Survey results (36-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 08 September 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Fast fear reflex, slow portfolio adjustment

The fear reflex comes back very quickly: share sentiment rushes back into the pessimism zone from its recent neutral levels. This is where we were 5 weeks ago. As there is no doubt in the investor bias that the stock markets will continue to rise in the medium term, the TD Index also reacts significantly. Such low values have their own significance, especially as portfolio trading shows only moderate pressure to adjust. Things could therefore get rough again over the next three weeks.

Further results

• Equities: Average profile shows short term ‘rough path’
• Bonds: Bund future bias shows first flaw
• sentix Economic Index: Monday, 09th Sept. 2024 at 10:30 AM CET

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sentix Survey results (35-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 01 September 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Overconfidence with the DAX

Sentiment on the stock market is neutral, basic confidence is stable. There are special signals in terms of overconfidence: this is high for the DAX and diametrically low for the CSI 300. There are more striking changes in the bond bias and in precious metals: The signs of tiredness in the bias of gold and silver should be taken seriously, as long positioning continues to grow. In the case of US bonds, on the other hand, the rise in institutional bias is convincing.

Further results

• Equities: China with anti-cyclical buy signals
• Bonds: Convincing institutional judgement
• Precious metals: signs of fatigue are progressing

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sentix Survey results (34-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 25 August 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Continued divergence of sentiment

The atypical price behaviour for this time of year continued last week. Prices continued to recover, giving the DAX an unusual series of upswings. On the US stock market, the S&P 500 is only just below its high for the year. However, investors' sentiment is not being sparked. On the one hand, this is leading to low values in the TD Index, which is positive. On the other hand, there is a negative divergence in sentiment.

Further results

• Bonds: Attractiveness of the long end increases
• Gold and oil: Strategic confidence weakens
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (33-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 18 August 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

The fear has vanished

The fear of an equity crash has evaporated. The vehemence of the price rise in many stock indices has made a strong impression on investors (and on us). In this country, fear - as measured by sentix sentiment - was considerably high. The US data from the AAII, on the other hand, only fell to a neutral level. Have Americans simply remained cool or is there still an episode to come? In any case, the extreme dissonance between macro developments (sentix economic indices) and confidence on the stock market (bias) is still there.

Further results

• Bonds: Strong bias for Bund & UK Gilts
• EUR/JPY: Exchange rate burden ahead
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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