Crisis in Germany remains stubborn

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 February 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix economic index for the eurozone rises by +2.9 points to -12.9 points in February, the fourth consecutive increase. Nevertheless, the recovery process remains sluggish. This is mainly due to Germany. The current assessment there fell to -39.3 points, while expectations recovered only sluggishly by 2.3 points. With the expectations component still at -14.0 points, the recession theme therefore remains. Internationally, there are increasing signs of recovery. The US region in particular is scoring well, with the overall index rising by 5.9 points to 12.1 points. Asia also continues to impress. The Asia ex Japan (China) region and Japan itself continue to try to develop economic momentum. As a result, the sentix Global Aggregate climbs to its highest level since February 2022.

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sentix Survey results (04-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 28 January 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

All-time high in US equity overconfidence

The technical condition of the stock markets is extremely robust. Nevertheless, the risks are increasing from the sentix analysis perspective. This applies above all to the US equity markets, where the overconfidence index has reached very high levels. Such a value indicates that the price development was so one-sided that investors are beginning to extrapolate trends. There are also interesting data changes to report for bonds and crude oil.

Further results

• Equities: Stall in the bias
• Crude oil: Further rise in underlying confidence
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (03-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 21 January 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Vola increase displayed

The mix of high overconfidence, neutral sentiment and skeptical institutional investors is a warning sign for the US equity market. With new all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trying to draw investors into the markets. Investors are irritated and are flocking to the neutral camp, both in terms of sentiment and positioning behavior. A rise in vola is therefore indicated! There is also an unfavorable development in USD/JPY. (See also chart generator on our homepage www.sentix.co.uk )

Further results

• Equities: High overconfidence for US equities
• Bonds: First downward wave nears its end
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (02-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 January 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Shooting star Japan

The stock markets showed a positive reaction to the negative sentiment of the previous week. However, the market consolidation is unlikely to be over yet. This is also true for the Japanese shooting star, as there is also a consolidation signal here. The underlying strategic confidence in crude oil continues to rise, underlining the seasonal price opportunities.

Further results

• Equities: US equities continue to consolidate
• Crude oil: Medium-term expectations continue to rise
• sentix sector sentiment

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Germany still in crisis

Written by Manfred Hübner | 08 January 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix Economic Indicator for January shows the third consecutive improvement in the overall index for the eurozone. Situation and expectation values both rise by 1 point. And yet this is unlikely to be a turnaround. This is partly due to Germany, whose economy is still in recession and therefore in crisis. Internationally, there is positive news from Asia and Latin America. However, it is questionable whether this will be enough to reverse the global trend. This is because a new problem is on the horizon with regard to inflation and therefore central bank policy.

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