Appetite for risk is back

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Investors’ risk preference has reached levels last seen in 2011 and before the financial crisis 2007/08. In both cases, the sentix indicator was a warning signal for coming trouble in equity markets.

sentix Investmentmeinung 11-2017

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Die Aktien-Risikolage wird nicht besser

Die steigenden Aktienkurse sorgen nicht für Entspannung in unserem Datenkranz. Im Gegenteil. Die von uns gemessene Risikolage verschlechtert sich weiter. Wir zeigen dies anhand diverser sentix-Indikatoren auf. Pa-rallelen zum Frühjahr 2006 drängen sich auf.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX 50

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sentix ASR Essentials 11-2017

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Commodities sentiment setback a risk for EM Equities

Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities remains closely linked with views on commodities. It is notable then that optimism on commodities as a grouping has been tempered in the past month, even as EM sentiment has headed higher. The latest survey highlights a large and growing divergence of opinions on two key commodity markets, with investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil becoming ever-more negative, while Gold readings have resumed their upward path. This caution on crude appears to be dampening sentiment towards commodities as an asset class. Based on past experience, the risk is that continued caution on commodities proves a drag on EM equity sentiment. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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Extreme pessimism emerges on energy stocks

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The sentix Sector Sentiment for European energy stocks has hit the lowest level since 2002. Within only a few weeks, investors’ perception has turned upside down. The latest shift in investors’ sentiment reflects the latest oil price shock. Energy stocks are not out of the woods yet due to an unfavourable oil market setup.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 10-2017

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Von Euro zu Yen

Während sich an den Aktienmärkten kaum etwas im sentix-Datenkranz getan hat und die Sentimentlage weiter angespannt bleibt, zeichnet sich am Währungsmarkt eine deutlichere Short-Fokussierung beim Yen ab. Im Rohstoff-Segment hat sich unsere Geduld ausgezahlt: Der Öleinbruch hievt das Research-Portfolio deutlich ins Plus.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-USD, EUR-JPY

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