sentix Investmentmeinung 50-2016

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Kaufen ohne echte Überzeugung

Eine der markantesten Entwicklungen gibt es zurzeit beim Rohöl/Brent zu beobachten. Gemäß den COT-Daten steigen die long-Positionierung der large speculators auf ein neues Allzeithoch (siehe Chart, Linie in orange); Dieser Positionsaufbau ist keineswegs von einem Anstieg im Grundvertrauen begleitet (grüne Linie). „Kaufen ohne echte Überzeugung“ ist ein Verhalten an den Märkten, das selten belohnt wird.

Geänderte Einschätzung: Rohöl (Brent)

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sentix ASR Essentials 50-2016

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Dollar optimism hasn’t curbed commodity sentiment

The sentix survey suggests that several sentiment strands remain in place as markets head towards the festive break. Optimism on equities is high, but less stretched than it was a week ago. At the same time, investors remain highly positive on the outlook for commodities as grouping, albeit it appears that Gold has lost its medium-term lustre for survey participants. Such optimism on commodities has opened up a notable gap between investors’ views on commodities and emerging market equities. It has also occurred despite increasing optimism on the US dollar, with pessimism on EUR/USD still running at historically extended levels. Interestingly, dollar optimism has not curbed investors’ positive opinion on the outlook for commodities (see Charts 2-4, p2).

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European bank stocks are en vogue again

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The sentix Sector Sentiment for European bank stocks hits the highest value since January 2014. Investors’ perception inverted by 180 degrees within only a few months. At least in the short-run, the steady rate of bullish conversion strains further outperformance.

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Déjà-vu

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sentix Sentiment for the German equity market scores new record high. Investors celebrate previous week’s stock market gains. The latest sentiment frenzy represents a short-term contrarian sell signal – a similar set-up as last year.

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sentix Jahresausblick 2017

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Das Jahr 2016 neigt sich dem Ende zu - es wird Zeit, sich über die Strategie für 2017 Gedanken zu machen! Der sentix Jahresausblick 2017 wirft einen Blick voraus auf das kommende Jahr und liefert wertvolle Themenanalysen sowie die sentix Jahresablaufpläne für eine Vielzahl von Anlagemärkten.

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