sentix Investmentmeinung 21-2017

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Das Unsicherheits-Level steigt

Auf das abnehmende Grundvertrauen haben die Anleger mit einer Anpassung ihrer Positionierung auf neutrale Niveaus reagiert. Damit muss die von uns seit Wochen favorisierte Markt-Konsolidierung nicht mehr zwingend eintreten. Andererseits bleibt das technische Bild angespannt und saisonal beginnt eine schwierigere Phase. Auf all das reagieren die Anleger mit zunehmender Nervosität!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, S&P 500, Nikkei

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Reduced risk of contagion

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Following the French presidential elections, investors' perception of the euro crisis has once again relaxed considerably. The overall Euroland index fell to 11.4%, the lowest since autumn 2015. While the Greek sub-index remains virtually unchanged, the probability of exit from France and Italy drops significantly. As a result, the risk of contagion is reduced to around 34%.

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sentix ASR Essentials 21-2017

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A less negative strategic bias on Crude

Last week we noted the continued interplay in sentiment towards emerging equity markets and commodities. At a market level, weakening investor opinion on the medium-term outlook for Chinese equities remains a feature, consistent with receding optimism on commodities as an asset class. However, on this latter front, there are some chinks of light amidst the prevailing recent gloom, with investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Crude Oil having become less negative in recent weeks. Notably, it is an improvement that has not been derailed by initial market disappointment at the outcome of last week’s OPEC meeting. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 20-2017

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War es das schon?

Heute vor einer Woche sah es mal wieder so aus, als würden die Aktienmärkte ihre verdiente und überfällige Konsolidierung durchlaufen. Doch nur eine Woche später, ist davon nur noch wenig zu spüren. Stattdessen beginnt sich der Strategische Bias zu stabilisieren und erweckt so den Eindruck, als läge das Schlimmste bereits hinter uns. Geht die Hausse demnach munter weiter?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY

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Bitcoins: Institutionals get doubts

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Since 2013, sentix has regularly measured the expectations of investors towards bitcoins. sentix is thus the only supplier of investor expectations worldwide to this new speculative instrument. The data show that since 2014, the interest of the market in bitcoins has increased systematically. But on the current edge there is a change in expectations, which could lead to a price correction in the "crypto currency".

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