sentix Survey results (05-2020)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 02 February 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

CRAZY

The expected correction in equities is taking shape. With the spread of the virus in China and all the associated horror scenarios, sales are experiencing increasing momentum. Sentiment for equities (in this case the US) plunges into negative territory. A comparison with the US stock sentiment during the SARS spread and today reveals a high similarity. At that time, however, there was real fear in the market (-45 percentage points). This fear persisted until mid-March 2003.

Further topics:

• Equities: Various comparisons to 2003 / SARS pandemic
• Bonds: No value perception
• Precious metals: Profit-taking announced

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No worries before the elections in Italy

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 January 2020
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The situation in the euro zone, measured by the sentix Euro Break-up Index, remains relaxed at the start of 2020. In contrast, the eagerly awaited regional elections in Italy left investors cold. Both the overall index and the sub-index for Italy fell slightly in the run-up to the elections.

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sentix Survey results (04-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 26 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Consolidation underway

Has the overdue correction in the US equity market ended before it has really started? Because the mood has already neutralized again and at the same time the basic confidence is asserting itself surprisingly clearly. Nevertheless, we expect the consolidation trend that has begun to continue, not least because we can measure both a sentiment and a volatility divergence. This is often just as much a harbinger of a weak phase as a sentiment divergence.

• Bonds: Sentiment improved, positioning increased
• Precious metals: Hardly any air left
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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From strategist to strategist: share buybacks under the microscope

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 January 2020
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

In a podcast of the series "Strategist & Strategist" (1), which is well worth listening to, colleagues from Flossbach von Storch (FvS) analyse the effects of share buybacks by companies on share prices. The starting point for their reflections was the assertion of many market participants that share prices can be manipulated by buybacks and that these can also be used fraudulently. We also have our thoughts on this topic! We have already presented them many times in our annual outlooks and will supplement them here once again in greater depth.

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sentix Survey results (03-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Consolidation ante portas

In the previous week we emphasized the increased risks in the US equity market. In the course of the week this did not change. The overbought situation has now reached almost 30% of all shares in the S&P 500. This is a historically high level and was only outbid at the beginning of 2018. By contrast, the mood has cooled down. Is this positive and is there a negative sentiment divergence? This is what we are investigating in this sentix sentiment analysis.

Further topics:

• FX: Further per EUR-USD
• Precious metals: mood ok, positioning strained
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)