sentix Survey results (30-2020)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 26 July 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Typical seasonal pattern or nevertheless 2009?

Over the past 3 months, a chronic pessimism has developed in equities - despite a rapid stock market recovery. And on the weekend, too, the old fears flare up, especially as the seasonal pattern begins to turn negative! The question is: Can the markets even fall sustainably with such pessimism? The market must decide soon: Do we rely on the typical seasonal timetable or rather on a trend similar to 2009 ("wall of worry").

Further topics:

• Equities: The next row of the "wall of worry" is built
• FX: Nine-year high in EUR/USD sentiment
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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Significant increase in risk appetite

Written by Manfred Hübner | 21 July 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

In the last few days, the stock markets have regained momentum and extended their recovery movements, which began in mid-March at the peak of the Corona crisis. This price rally coincides with a seasonally typical positive time window, namely the first half of July. Will the upswing continue or will the usual summer correction follow?

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sentix Survey results (29-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 July 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Neutral mood

The behaviour of speculative small investors is currently the subject of much debate. This can be seen in the very low values in the US equity put/call ratio. However, in our opinion this indicator is not representative of the actual sentiment. According to our sentiment, a certain skepticism continues to dominate overall. However, individual sub-segments, especially in the technology sector, are rightly subject to criticism, as a glance at our strategic bias in the analysis reveals.

Further topics:

• FX: Buy and sell indications
• Silver: High overconfidence
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (28-2020)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 12 July 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Nasdaq records without euphoria

It remains astonishing how strongly sentiment and the put-call ratio diverge. The chronically negative sentiment is supporting the S&P500, while small investors in particular on platforms such as "Robin-Hood" are stirring up the options markets. All-time highs on the Nasdaq do not create a jubilant mood! Only when pessimism falls should the market have reached its top. In addition, a seasonally strong equity window will open again in the short term.

Further topics:

• Equities: Seasonal positive impulse meets pessimism
• FX: Unloved US dollar
• sentix Sector sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Third consecutive increase

Written by Manfred Hübner | 06 July 2020
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix economic indices for the euro zone and many other regions improved in July for the third time in a row. The Euroland overall index rose by 6.6 points to -18.2 points. The biggest leap forward was made by the values for Switzerland. Here the overall index rises from -14.4 points to -1.6 points! Nevertheless, too much optimism seems out of place. On the one hand, expectations are falling slightly in almost all regions. On the other hand, investors continue to assume that the economic slump caused by the Corona crisis will not be offset within a year!

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