Is the worst already over?

Written by Manfred Hübner | 03 February 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Will the corona virus plunge the global economy into recession? Are further restrictions in everyday life to be expected in the short term? And how will governments and central banks react?

These are just some of the current uncertainties facing investors. What is the mood on the markets and how should one act now in the portfolio? This is the question we are looking into in the current "indicator in focus" issue.

Read the research here

sentix Survey results (05-2020)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 02 February 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

CRAZY

The expected correction in equities is taking shape. With the spread of the virus in China and all the associated horror scenarios, sales are experiencing increasing momentum. Sentiment for equities (in this case the US) plunges into negative territory. A comparison with the US stock sentiment during the SARS spread and today reveals a high similarity. At that time, however, there was real fear in the market (-45 percentage points). This fear persisted until mid-March 2003.

Further topics:

Equities: Various comparisons to 2003 / SARS pandemic
Bonds: No value perception
Precious metals: Profit-taking announced

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

No worries before the elections in Italy

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 January 2020
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The situation in the euro zone, measured by the sentix Euro Break-up Index, remains relaxed at the start of 2020. In contrast, the eagerly awaited regional elections in Italy left investors cold. Both the overall index and the sub-index for Italy fell slightly in the run-up to the elections.

sentix Survey results (04-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 26 January 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Consolidation underway

Has the overdue correction in the US equity market ended before it has really started? Because the mood has already neutralized again and at the same time the basic confidence is asserting itself surprisingly clearly. Nevertheless, we expect the consolidation trend that has begun to continue, not least because we can measure both a sentiment and a volatility divergence. This is often just as much a harbinger of a weak phase as a sentiment divergence.

Further topics:

Bonds: Sentiment improved, positioning increased
Precious metals: Hardly any air left
sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

From strategist to strategist: share buybacks under the microscope

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 January 2020
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

In a podcast of the series "Strategist & Strategist" (1), which is well worth listening to, colleagues from Flossbach von Storch (FvS) analyse the effects of share buybacks by companies on share prices. The starting point for their reflections was the assertion of many market participants that share prices can be manipulated by buybacks and that these can also be used fraudulently. We also have our thoughts on this topic! We have already presented them many times in our annual outlooks and will supplement them here once again in greater depth.