sentix Survey results (05-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 02 February 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Weak fundamental confidence in US tech stocks

An interesting development is taking place in the sentix sentiment indicator. Strategic confidence in the US equity markets continues to erode, while it improves in the eurozone. This is particularly pronounced in US technology stocks. Is this the beginning of the end for the outperformance of the ‘magic 7’?

Further results

• Equities: Sentiment high for gold mines
• USD-JPY: Bias on dive
• Silver: Sentiment high

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sentix Survey results (04-2025)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 26 January 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Clear investor reaction after "Drill, baby, drill" message

Donald Trump has made a powerful impression with his latest comments on crude oil and has caused an erosion in basic confidence in crude oil. The bias collapsed by 20 percentage points. Investors trust the newly elected US president that his policies will lead to falling crude oil prices in the medium term. However, the crude oil companies and Opec are likely to have other plans. Will Trump and the markets be caught on the wrong foot?

Further results

• Equities: Unfavourable TD Index
• Precious metals: TD index as the biggest pro argument
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (03-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 19 January 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment improvement

Equity markets saw a significant rise in prices last week. This is also reflected in the sentiment indices, which show a noticeable improvement in sentiment for equities. By contrast, basic confidence can only improve selectively, e.g. in Austria. We are also seeing interesting developments in USD-JPY and in commodities (oil, silver).

Further results

• USD-JPY: change in sentiment regime
• Silver: positioning still has some catching up to do
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (02-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 12 January 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Negative divergences

From a sentiment perspective, the situation on the stock markets has not changed significantly. Weak basic confidence and negative divergences in sentiment and market breadth still dominate the picture. The high level of neutrality towards US equities suggests that volatility will rise. In the currency area, the strength of the US dollar is likely to come to an end. By contrast, investors are still clearly seeking precious metals.

Further results

• FX: USD to consolidate
• Precious metals: still in demand
• sentix sector sentiment

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New year, old problems

Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 January 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

We wish all our readers a Happy New Year. However, the ‘first mover’ among the economic indicators is not yet showing any new momentum. In the eurozone, the economic engine is at risk of freezing up permanently. The situation values fall by a full index point to -29.5 points. At least expectations are rising slightly, so that the over-all index, at -17.7 points, indicates only a small decline. A stabilisation at an insufficiently weak level. By contrast, the US economy remains robust, even though the Trump euphoria has cooled. Slightly positive signals can be re-ported from Latin America. This is likely to be largely due to the first successes of the liberal President of Argentina, Javier Milei.

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