How much is missing before the crisis?

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 September 2023
Posted in sentix Economic News

The signs for the global economy sent out by the "first mover" among the economic indicators - the sentix economic index - point to a further downturn and a strengthening of the economic downturn forces. The situation in Germany remains particularly precarious. Here we are measuring the weakest situation values since July 2020, when the economy was slowed by the first Corona lockdown. Germany is also weighing heavily on the economy in the euro zone as a whole. The recession is progressing. But even for the USA, which has so far held up well and defied the restrictive FED policy, the economic data are falling markedly. The tipping point of a global recession is less distant than one might think.

sentix Survey results (35-2023)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 03 September 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

Central bank policy loses its fright

Investors assume that the central banks will gradually take their foot off the brake. The main reason is the weak economy. This is making investors more bullish about equities in the medium term. In the short term, the fear factor is still in play - albeit now in a reduced form. Bond investors should also benefit from a less restrictive interest rate policy. Therefore, the bias development as well as the contrary overconfidence signals should be taken seriously.

Further results

Equities: Fear in reduced form
Bonds: UK bias soaring - overconfidence in US bonds
sentix economic index: Monday, 04th Sept. 2023 at 10:30 CEST

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sentix Survey results (34-2023)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 August 2023
Posted in sentix Weekly

Negative sentiment supports

Sentiment for equities remains poor. Even though sentiment has improved somewhat, short-term skepticism dominates. This is particularly pronounced for China equities. This gives rise to short-term opportunities for a recovery. Bonds are suffering from the high attractiveness of short maturities. Memories of 2006-2008 are awakening. In gold and EUR-USD, there are interesting divergences between strategic bias and investor behavior.

Further results

Bonds: Short maturities are irresistible
Gold: Positioning helps
sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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Data revision notification SNTL

Written by Manfred Hübner | 25 August 2023
Posted in Database news

Dear data client, due to a bug, a data point in the SNTL data sets for May 2010 was missing. We have reconstructed the data and added the missing data point to the data series.

Behavioral Finance: Understanding the Psychology Behind Financial Decision-Making

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 August 2023
Posted in Woolly thoughts (blog)

In the realm of traditional finance, economic theories often assume that investors are rational, utility-maximizing individuals who make decisions based on all available information. However, in reality, human behavior is far more complex and often deviates from these rational models. This realization has given rise to a field known as behavioral finance, which seeks to understand the psychological factors that influence financial decision-making and the subsequent impact on markets and economic outcomes.