sentix ASR Essentials 43-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bund pessimism reaches high end of historic range

The latest sentix survey points to increasingly entrenched pessimism on the nearterm outlook for US and Eurozone Bonds. In the case of Bund futures, sentiment readings have reached levels not seen in five years, and are now firmly set at the low end of their historic range. At the same time, monthly questions on investor positioning revealed that survey participants’ levels of over-investment in bonds have dropped well below long-term average levels. In conclusion, near-term pessimism on bunds is running at relatively stretched levels, though at the same time investors’ medium-term strategic bias on bunds has become a little less negative (see Charts 2-3, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 42-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Öl mit neuem Signal

Die Ölpreise konnten sich in den letzten Wochen – entgegen der üblichen saisonalen Tendenz – weiter erho-len. Ausgangspunkt war ein schwaches Sentiment und eine moderate Belebung im Strategischen Bias. Doch nun beginnen sich, eine Reihe von Divergenzen einzustellen. Diese müssen zwar den Ölpreis nicht sofort nach Süden bringen, doch die Gefahrenmomente nehmen zu!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-USD, Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 42-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 23 October 2016
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EM optimism chimes with constructive views on Commodities

The latest sentix survey points to an increasingly negative strategic bias on Eurozone bonds among those investors surveyed, set against a notably positive medium-term bias on equities, whether developed or emerging market. On the latter front, continued optimism on emerging market equities as an asset class chimes with a revival in sentiment towards commodities, underlining once again that sentiment on both asset classes remains closely linked. In the case of commodities, sentiment is not being undermined by investors’ optimism on the near-term outlook for the US dollar versus Yen and the euro (Charts 2-4, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 41-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 17 October 2016
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Märkte auf dem Sprung – Neutralität als Katalysator

Die Spannung an den Aktienmärkten ist förmlich greifbar. Die täglichen Schwankungen gehen immer mehr zurück. Im Gegenzug steigt die Zahl der neutral gestimmten Investoren kontinuierlich. Diese hohe Neutralität deutet auf eine bevorstehende, dynamische Marktbewegung hin. Ein solches Neutralitätssignal ist jedoch per Definition richtungslos. Gibt es Hinweise, auf die wahrscheinliche Ausbruchsrichtung?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 41-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 October 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Pessimism persists on Defensives versus Cyclical sectors

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors are continuing to warm to cyclical and resource-plays at a European sector level, but have become cooler on the more defensive sectors over the past month. Thus survey readings on Energy and Basic Resources versus the market are pulling further away from H1 lows, while on the other side of the sentiment divide, readings on Healthcare and Food & Beverages are as weak as they have been in over fifteen months. The sentiment tilt remains very much skewed towards cyclical sectors versus defensives. Echoes of this are evident at an asset level, with near-term pessimism on Eurozone bonds reaching relatively extended levels in a historic context, albeit survey respondents’ mediumterm strategic bias on bunds remains firmly negative. See pages 2 and 4 for charts.

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