sentix Survey results (32-2019)

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 11 August 2019
Posted in sentix Weekly

Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 05 August 2019
Posted in sentix Weekly

Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

Do you remember summer 2011? Back then, economic indicators and the stock market went their separate ways for many months. Within a few trading days, the whole thing turned into a summer crash. In 2019, too, such a gap opened up - more than ever.

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sentix Survey results (31-2019)

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 August 2019
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bargain hunters, where are you?

With a bear surplus of 35 percentage points, the sentiment for US equities reflects strongly frightened investors. We measure a 52-week low in the sentiment barometer (inverted presentation). At the same time, the P/C ratio is also starting to rise. The measured fear is an indication that we are heading for a temporary market low. However, a return of US equities to the bull market seems impossible. The reaction in the strategic bias (not shown) is too weak for this.

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High risks with gold - entry only after consolidation

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 29 July 2019
Posted in sentix Weekly

High risks with gold - entry only after consolidation

With gold, we are currently measuring a clearly tense risk constellation. The overall risk index for gold amounts to -1.13 standard deviations.

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sentix Survey results (30-2019)

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 July 2019
Posted in sentix Weekly

Silver bias goes through the ceiling

At 71 percent, the strategic bull overhang in silver marks an absolute record. The strategic bias on silver rises to dizzying heights and illustrates the extremely high basic conviction among investors. A reaction in the positioning behavior has already taken place! With almost 55,000 contracts traded (CoT Report), speculations on a rising silver price predominate. It remains positive that the sentiment for silver (see also page 4 middle) with +30% clearly lags behind the bias.

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