sentix ASR Essentials 18-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 07 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

A less negative bias on bunds versus EZ equities

A couple of interesting angles emerged from the latest sentix survey. In a relative market context, the gap between investors’ medium-term strategic bias on bunds versus Eurozone equities continues to close even though the relative path of price performance is still heading lower. This reflects a still negative medium-term bias on equities, set against a sharply improving bias on bunds (see Chart 9, p4), which chimes with survey readings that indicate that economic expectations are seen as a slightly less bearish theme for bonds. There are also signs of a change in investors’ medium-term views in commodities, with survey participants having become a little less negative on the medium-term outlook for Crude Oil, even as prices have dropped below $50pb. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 17-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 02 May 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Die Parallele zu 2006 bleibt verblüffend hoch!

Eine faustdicke Überraschung präsentieren die sentix-Daten. Zeigte die Frankreich-Sonderumfrage noch eine positive Haltung der Anleger zum Ausgang der französischen Präsidentschaftswahlen (und daraus folgend für Aktien und Euro), so ist davon in den Daten vom Wochenende kaum etwas zu erkennen. Im Gegenteil. Der strategische Aktien-Bias der Profis fällt sogar! Damit bleibt der Gleichlauf zu 2006 erhalten.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 17-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 30 April 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Gold losing its lustre for investors

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors’ more positive medium-term strategic bias on bunds and EUR/USD remains intact, as is the less negative bias on equities that has emerged in recent weeks. In contrast, investor sentiment on Gold has fallen back to relatively neutral levels, while readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias are showing signs of rolling over. It appears that Gold may be losing its lustre for investors. This chimes with last week’s survey review, in which we noted that optimism on commodities as a grouping was weakening. See Charts 2-4 on page 2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 16-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 25 April 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Frankreich-Wahl ändert alles, oder?

Frankreich hat gewählt, zumindest einmal. Die Stichwahl Macron-Le Pen scheint aus Sicht der Anleger gelau-fen. Für 40% der Anleger steht der Wahlsieger fest und nur für weniger als 8% der Anleger hat Le Pen noch eine gewisse Siegeschance. Die mit einem Wahlsieg Macrons verbundenen Perspektiven beflügeln die Anlegererwartungen und führen zu technischen Kaufsignalen. Dem müssen wir Rechnung tragen.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, EUR-JPY, Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 16-2017

Written by Patrick Hussy | 23 April 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Commodities setback still a concern for EM Equities

The latest sentix survey suggests that the run up to the first round of the French election did little to distract investors from their increasingly positive medium-term strategic bias on the euro versus the US dollar. EUR/USD readings remain well above the lows recorded at the start of the year. At the same time, the recent revival in strategic bias readings on developed equity markets remains on track, along with the improved tone of sentiment towards emerging markets (EM). However, on this latter front, it is notable that optimism on commodities as a grouping is still weakening. The risk remains that continued caution on commodities proves a drag on EM equity sentiment. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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