sentix Investmentmeinung 32-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 August 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Typisch August

Im aktuellen Datenkranz messen wir reihenweise negative Sentiment-Extreme. Die Stimmungsindikatoren signalisieren damit eine gehörige Portion Angst vor kurzfristig fallenden Kursen. Typisch August, ist man geneigt zu sagen. Denn in den letzten 10 Jahren gab es kaum ein Jahr ohne August-Angst. Wie gut stehen die Chancen auf Kursgewinne?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: S&P 500, Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 32-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 August 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment poles apart on Equities versus Gold

The latest sentix survey provides a unique insight into investors’ opinion of markets at the end of a turbulent week. A bout of ‘risk-off’ can be seen in survey responses on sector preferences, with Autos pessimism versus the market reaching historic extremes, while sentiment has sharply improved towards Utilities. At the same time, sentiment on the near-term outlook for Gold has reached the high-end of its historic range. In contrast, investor sentiment on equities has also fallen to the low-end of its historic range. Interestingly, however, near-term pessimism has not undermined investors’ increasingly positive medium-term strategic bias on equities. Geo-political concerns appear to have shaken investors’ confidence on the near-term, but have not stirred them to re-assess their upbeat views on the medium-term outlook for equity markets. See page 2 and 3 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 31-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 August 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Euro vor Gewinnmitnahmen

Die Währungsmärkte stehen weiter im Fokus. Besonders trifft dies auf den Euro zu, der sich in den letz-ten Wochen stark befestigt hat. Die Erwartungen einer baldigen beherzten Zinswende der EZB stehen mit Blick auf die sentix Konjunkturindizes und die Themenbarometer jedoch auf relativ wackeligen Beinen. In Verbindung mit einer Abschwächung im Strategischen Bias sowie der deutlichen Euro-Longpositionierung der Anleger ergibt sich eine Chance auf eine Euro-Abschwächung.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-USD, US-Bonds

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sentix ASR Essentials 31-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 August 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Inflation expectations still benefitting bunds

Investor pessimism on Bunds has receded in the past couple of weeks, while survey respondents are also becoming less negative on Bunds from a medium-term strategic perspective, with survey readings much less downbeat than they were at the start of this year (see Chart 9, page 4). Monthly questions on bond ‘themes’, suggest investors view inflation as a much less Eurozone bond-bearish theme than it was coming into 2017. In contrast, economics is still seen as a notably bearish theme for bonds. While inflation expectations appear to be continuing to win out over bond concerns over economics as a theme, it may still leave bunds at risk from any signs that inflation is not as benign as believed. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 30-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 31 July 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Der Charme der Diskrepanz

Die Anleger haben Respekt vor der saisonal schwachen Aktienmarkt-Phase, die ab August beginnt. Dementsprechend trägt das Sentiment pessimistische Züge. Trotzdem erkennen die Anleger auch, dass über diese Zeit hinaus gedacht Chancen im jüngsten Kursrückgang europäischer Aktien liegen. Doch die Ängste überwiegen und führen insbesondere bei den Investmentprofis zu einer deutlichen Unterinves-tierung. Diese Diskrepanz versprüht den Charme eines konträren Einstiegs.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX50 sowie Rohöl

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