sentix ASR Essentials 40-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 08 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment tailwind still supporting Nikkei and USD/JPY

The latest sentix survey suggests both near-term sentiment and investors’ strategic bias on eurozone equities has modestly weakened. However, in wider global equity context there has been little sign of a change of investor tack on Japan, with sentiment and strategic bias readings both heading higher as the Nikkei 225 index nears 2015 highs around 20,977. Investor sentiment towards the Japanese equity market remains closely tied to views on the Japanese Yen. It is encouraging then that even after the recent revival in sentiment on both Nikkei and USD/JPY, there is still some way to go before survey readings reach levels that would indicate risk of a reversal from an extended optimism condition. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 39-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Goldener Aktien-Oktober?

Der von vielen Anlegern gefürchtete September war in 2017 ein ausgesprochen positiver Monat. 6,4% hat der DAX zugelegt. Damit zeigt sich einmal mehr, dass ein extremes Sentiment (im August hatten wir ein bearishes Stimmungstief!) wichtiger ist als saisonale, zyklische Kräfte. Gilt dies auch im Oktober?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 39-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors increasingly poles apart on Equities versus Bonds

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors remain resolutely upbeat on equities and deeply downbeat on bunds. As a result, the sentiment gap between bunds and eurozone equities is now large and growing, albeit the gap has yet to reach historic lows. In the case of equities, investors’ increasingly positive medium-term strategic bias on the EuroSTOXX is likely being lent support by growing caution on the euro, with EUR/USD medium-term strategic bias readings rolling over in recent weeks. The interplay between investor opinion on equities, bonds and the euro remains notable. It is a sentiment angle worth watching as markets move into the final quarter of the year. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 38-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 25 September 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Unterschätztes Wahlergebnis?!

Wie von uns erwartet, war die Bundestagswahl nicht das allseits favorisierte None-Event. Saisonal ist nach der Wahl ohnehin meist eine Konsolidierung des Aktienmarktes angelegt. Mit der hohen Unsicherheit über das künftige Regierungsbündnis hat der Markt einen guten Grund dazu. Auch für den Euro könnte das Wahlergebnis Signalwirkung haben.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EuroSTOXX, DAX, S&P 500, EUR-USD

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sentix ASR Essentials 38-2017

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 September 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Backing away from a positive Euro bias

The latest sentix survey revealed that sentiment on the euro was relatively neutral versus the US dollar ahead of the German election results, though investors’ strategic bias on the single currency continues to weaken. On the latter front, readings on EUR/USD dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. Changing opinion on the medium-term outlook for the euro had little impact on equity views, with strategic bias readings on eurozone indices also edging lower over the week. However, a continued moderation in investors’ medium-term euro bias moving into Q4 could potentially provide a plank of support for investors strategic views on eurozone equities. One to watch! See Charts 2-4, p2.

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