sentix-ASR Essentials 50-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 17 December 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Historically high neutrality points to risk of rise in equity volatility

The latest sentix survey revealed that the recent turnaround in sentiment towards eurozone bonds versus equities is continuing as the festive period draws near, while at the same time investors’ medium-term strategic bias on the EuroSTOXX continues to weaken. In terms of near-term equity sentiment, survey readings are running at modestly positive levels. However, beneath the surface, investors’ neutrality on the near-term outlook for the EuroSTOXX index has reached historic highs. This chimes with historically low levels of implied market volatility, as measured by the VSTOXX Index. It suggests potential for a pick-up in equity volatility as markets move into next year. See charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 49-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 11 December 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Overconfidence und Erinnerungen an 2015

Markante Daten finden sich aktuell in der sentix-Datenbank. Diese wecken Erinnerungen an das Jahresende 2015 – und an einen unglücklichen Start ins Jahr 2016. Wiederholt sich die Geschichte? Das wäre zumindest für die meisten Anleger eine faustdicke Überraschung, denn scheinbar spricht alles für Aktien und gegen Bonds.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: US Bonds, S&P 500, Gold

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sentix ASR Essentials 49-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 10 December 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Energy optimism burning less brightly

The recent OPEC deal to extend productions cuts has done little to bolster investor sentiment towards energy. In the case of crude oil, both near-term sentiment and readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias have further retreated from recent highs. In terms of oil sentiment, it appears to have been a case of buy the rumour sell the fact on OPEC. At the same time, optimism on the European energy sector relative to the market has sharply reversed from the five-year highs recorded a month ago. Investor optimism on energy related plays is weakening. See pages 2 and 3 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 48-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 December 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Fällt die Jahresendrallye aus?

Das positive Stimmungsbild an den Aktienmärkten spiegelt, dass viele Anleger mit einem guten Dezember-Verlauf rechnen. Doch diese „sichere“ Wette ist keineswegs sicher. Denn vor allem an den US-Märkten sind erhebliche technische Risiken vorhanden. Besonders Technologie-Aktien scheinen korrekturgefährdet.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Silber, Nasdaq 100

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sentix ASR Essentials 48-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 03 December 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Inflation casts a shadow across Bunds sentiment revival

Investors are becoming less downbeat on eurozone bonds in terms of both nearterm sentiment and their medium-term strategic bias. This change of tack can also be seen in the gap between strategic bias readings on bunds versus the EuroSTOXX, which is reversing from recent lows. What could de-rail this recent revival? The latest sentix survey also revealed that inflation is viewed as a more bond-bearish theme than it was month ago. A further deterioration in inflationary newsflow could curb the revival in sentiment towards bunds. See Page 2 for charts.

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