sentix ASR Essentials 47-2017

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Interesting developments in bonds, equities and oil

The latest sentix survey throws up several interesting developments across assets. In the case of bonds, high levels of ‘neutrality’ on the near-term outlook for bunds suggest potential for a pick-up in implied bond volatility from current low levels. In the case of equities, optimism on indices such as the EuroSTOXX is again rising, though at the same time investors have become a little less positive in terms of their medium-term strategic bias. This is likely not being helped by the equity implications of their more positive strategic bias on the euro versus US dollar. In commodities, growing investor oil optimism ahead of this week’s OPEC meeting is set against a less positive view of the medium-term outlook. See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 46-2017

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EUR-JPY vor Trendentscheidung

Das Platzen der Jamaika-Sondierungen perlt an den Aktienmärkten ab. Die Vorfreude auf ein freundliches Jahresende überwiegt bei den Investoren gegenüber den Sorgen um eine Fortsetzung des politischen Vakuums in Deutschland. In Zeiten scheinbar unendlicher Prosperität mag eine handlungsfähige Regierung entbehrlich sein. Das ändert sich aber in dem Moment, wo wichtige Entscheidungen zu treffen wären.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 46-2017

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High neutrality points to pick-up in Gold volatility

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between sentiment on emerging equity markets and commodities. Investors’ less positive opinion on the outlook for emerging equity markets chimes with their a modestly less upbeat view on commodities as an asset class. This can be seen at a market level, with optimism on Crude oil receding from elevated levels as November’s OPEC meeting draws closer. Modest optimism is also a feature on Gold, though this is set against historically high levels of investor ‘neutrality’ on its near-term outlook as future near $1300. It also suggests increased potential for a pick-up in Gold volatility from reasonably low levels (based on CBOE Gold Volatility Index). See Charts 2-4, p2.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 45-2017

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Ein zarter Silberglanz

Edelmetall-Investoren hatten in den letzten Monaten nicht allzu viel zu lachen. Zwar liegen Gold und Silber seit Jahresanfang im Plus, doch außer einem guten ersten Quartal hatten die beiden führenden Edelmetalle nicht zu bieten. Bei Platin sieht es auch nicht besser aus. Doch nun zeichnet sich bei Silber ein „Silberstreif“ am Horizont ab.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Silber

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sentix ASR Essentials 45-2017

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Investors poles apart on Media and Energy

The latest sentix survey provides an insight into investors’ opinion on European markets and sectors as we move deeper into Q4. At a market level, sentiment towards equities has suffered a setback in recent weeks, though the latest survey also revealed a modest increase in investors’ medium-term strategic bias on indices. At a sector level, a month ago we highlighted the deep pessimism that overhung both Retailing and Media. While Retail pessimism has moderated in the past month, investors remain deeply downbeat on Media, with readings again running at historic lows. On the other side of the sentiment divide investors have become markedly more optimistic on Energy, with survey readings reaching five-year highs, even as optimism on Oil has modestly receded as this month’s OPEC meeting draws nearer. Investors are poles apart on Media and Energy. See pages 2 and 3 for charts.

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