sentix ASR Essentials 45-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 12 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors poles apart on Media and Energy

The latest sentix survey provides an insight into investors’ opinion on European markets and sectors as we move deeper into Q4. At a market level, sentiment towards equities has suffered a setback in recent weeks, though the latest survey also revealed a modest increase in investors’ medium-term strategic bias on indices. At a sector level, a month ago we highlighted the deep pessimism that overhung both Retailing and Media. While Retail pessimism has moderated in the past month, investors remain deeply downbeat on Media, with readings again running at historic lows. On the other side of the sentiment divide investors have become markedly more optimistic on Energy, with survey readings reaching five-year highs, even as optimism on Oil has modestly receded as this month’s OPEC meeting draws nearer. Investors are poles apart on Media and Energy. See pages 2 and 3 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 44-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 06 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Messbare Risiken

Die Aktienmärkte – und nicht nur die! – befinden sich in Hausse-Laune. In der abgelaufenen Woche markierte der DAX erneut ein Allzeit-Hoch und die von uns im Jahresausblick 2017 skizzierten 14.000 Punkte sind nicht mehr allzu fern. In den letzten Jahren hat es sich immer weniger bezahlt gemacht, auf mögliche Risiken in den Märkten zu achten. Wird dies so bleiben?

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 44-2017

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 05 November 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

Nikkei optimism boosted by Yen pessimism

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors have become modestly less optimistic on the near-term outlook for equities (albeit survey readings remain elevated), while their medium-term strategic bias on equities continues to weaken. In the case of Japanese equities, rising sentiment in recent weeks has chimed with growing optimism on USD/JPY. This week’s reversal in USD/JPY sentiment from high optimism levels is, therefore, consistent with receding optimism on the Nikkei. It suggests that a continued lessening in Yen pessimism could undermine still high optimism levels on the Nikkei 225. See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 43-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

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Zwischen Euphorie und Saisonalität

Mit Halloween beginnt eigentlich an den US-Börsen die „starke Periode“, die nach Thanksgiving sogar noch an Dynamik gewinnt. In diesem Jahr jedoch haben sich die US-Aktienmärkte seit August saisonuntypisch und deutlich positiver entwickelt als in früheren Jahren. Nun messen wir ein sehr bullishes Sentiment bei gleichzeitig fallender Bias. Zwei Statistiken stehen sich damit gegenüber.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 43-2017

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 October 2017
Posted in sentix Weekly

High optimism and low neutrality may be a risk for equities

The rising tide of optimism on equities has lifted near-term sentiment readings on the EuroSTOXX Index to highly elevated levels. This has occurred despite a continued weakening in investors’ strategic bias on equities from recent highs. In short, high optimism on the near-term outlook is set against a less upbeat view on the medium-term prospects for markets. It is also set against increasingly high levels of investor ‘certainty’ on the near-term outlook, based on the sentix Neutrality indices. It is a combination that points to the potential for increased equity volatility in the near-term. See Charts 2-4 and 7, p2 and 3.

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