sentix ASR Essentials 25-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 26 June 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Gold shines as Brexit overshadows market sentiment

The latest sentix survey provides a timely view of investors’ views in the wake of the UK referendum vote to leave the EU. In terms of equities and bonds, pessimism and optimism has increased in equal measure, though survey readings are not yet extreme on either asset class. The most market move for the likes of DAX, EuroSTOXX and Bunds has been a sharp decline in investor neutrality on the nearterm, though uncertainties persist on the strategic outlook for equities and bonds. In the near-term, sentiment has moved more notably in FX and commodities, with sentiment readings for EUR/USD hitting their lowest levels of the year in the latest survey and Gold readings reaching the high end of their historic range. Investor sentiment has become poles apart on EUR/USD and Gold See Charts 2-4, p3.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 24-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 June 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Wie eine „Fata Morgana“?!

Kaum haben die Anleger sich auf die Möglichkeit eines Brexits eingestellt, wird dieser auch schon wieder „abgesagt“. Das Attentat auf eine britische Politikerin hat „die Reihen geschlossen“ und dürfte den Status Quo-Bias so stark anheizen, dass der Brexit wahrscheinlich abgewendet werden kann. Das dürfte die Märkte taktisch prägen, strategisch sind jedoch andere Weichenstellungen bedeutender.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: keine

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sentix ASR Essentials 24-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 19 June 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Warming to EZ versus US equities despite near-term uncertainties

A week in which Thursday’s UK Brexit vote will likely dominate market sentiment has started in positive fashion, with equity markets bouncing on the back of polls showing ‘remain’ having a modest lead over ‘leave’. However, latest sentix survey suggests investors are becoming more upbeat on eurozone (EZ) equity markets from a medium-term perspective. This has seen the gap between strategic bias readings for the EuroSTOXX and S&P 500 pull sharply back from spring lows. It appears that some investors are seeing value in EZ equities versus US from a strategic perspective (Charts 3-4, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 23-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 June 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Volatile Zeiten

Nur noch wenige Tage trennen die Märkte von der scheinbar alles dominierenden Brexit-Entscheidung. In den nächsten Tagen dürfte der wohl noch ansteigende Absicherungsbedarf für die Märkte prägend bleiben. Das Ereignis selbst wird dann wahrscheinlich weniger gravierend, als jetzt noch vermutet. Dagegen sind andere Faktoren wichtiger, werden aber aufgrund der Brexit-Debatte nur unzureichend registriert.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: EUR-JPY, USD-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 23-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 12 June 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors still wary on Banks; but warming to commodity-plays

The latest sentix survey provides a view of investors’ current convictions on European sectors versus the market. A couple of themes emerge. Pessimism remains the dominant theme on Financials, with sentiment readings on Insurance hitting a two-year low and Banks firmly entrenched at the low-end of their historic sentiment range versus the market. However, at the same time, investors have become markedly less downbeat on commodity plays such as Basic Resources and Energy in a relative context, with survey readings pulling further back from 2016 lows. This latter development is interesting given the recent sharp reversal seen in strategic bias readings on Oil. See page 2 for charts.

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