sentix ASR Essentials 22-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 05 June 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

EZ economic expectations favouring equities over bonds

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Index has reached +9.9, its highest level this year. The improvement in eurozone economic expectations (with the sentix index also hitting a 2016 high) can also be seen in investors’ views on markets. For one thing, economics is seen as becoming a more bearish than bullish theme for eurozone bonds. For another, improving economic expectations chime with the recent turnaround in investors’ strategic bias towards equities (based on the EuroSTOXX Index) versus bonds (based on Bunds). EZ economic expectations are consistent with investors’ more constructive mediumterm views on equities versus bonds (see Page 2 for charts).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 21-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 30 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Eine kurzlebige Aktienrally?

Um satte 50% ist das Aktiensentiment zum deutschen Aktienmarkt in der letzten Woche angestiegen. Parallel dazu haben die Anleger auch ihre Positionierung spürbar angehoben. Es spricht viel dafür, dass die laufende Aufwärtsbewegung eher eine unterdurchschnittliche Halbwertszeit aufweisen sollte. Wir versuchen einen Ablaufplan zu skizzieren.

Geänderte Einschätzung: T-Bonds, Japanische Aktien

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sentix ASR Essentials 21-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Strategic bias is poles apart on US Equities and Bonds

The latest sentix survey underlines the increasingly upbeat tone of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equities, at a time when over-investment is back inline with longer-term average levels (see Chart 7a, page 3). In the case of the US market, a sustained upturn in readings on the S&P 500 contrasts with a sharp reversal in readings based on investors’ strategic bias on US Treasuries. A marked move towards risk-on is still evident in survey readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equity and bond markets. This also chimes with an apparent change of heart on Gold, with survey readings backing away from recent highs through the course of this month. See Charts 2-4, page 3.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 20-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Positive Aktiensignale im Mai

Überraschend positive Signale haben wir am Wochenende aus dem sentix Global Investor Survey erhalten. Von dem vielzitierten „sell in May“, also der oft im Mai zu beobachtenden Gewinnmitnahmetendenz zum Ende der Dividendensaison, ist in diesem Jahr wenig zu verspüren. Stattdessen zeichnen sich vor allem die institutionellen Anleger durch einen starken Anstieg im Grundvertrauen um 13% aus!

Geänderte Einschätzung: DAX, EuroSTOXX 50

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sentix ASR Essentials 20-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 22 May 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Strengthening strategic bias for equities over bonds

The latest sentix survey suggest investors continue to warm to developed equity markets from a medium-term perspective, but are becoming markedly cooler on bonds (see p3-4). This has seen the gap between strategic bias readings for the EuroSTOXX and Bunds pull further away from its January lows (see Chart 2, p2), implying survey participants favour equities over bonds in the medium-term. However, sentiment towards emerging equity markets as an asset class has weakened in the past month, at the same time as commodity optimism has moderated. It appears that sentiment on both asset classes remains inextricably linked (Charts 3-4, p2).

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