sentix ASR Essentials 32-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 August 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Investors appear to be less on the (sector) defensive

The latest sentix survey provides a view of investors’ current convictions on European sectors versus the market. In terms of broad investment themes, survey participants’ have become less pessimistic on financial sectors such as Insurance and Banks versus the market and more upbeat on cyclical sectors such as Chemicals, Construction and Industrials. At the same time, defensives such as Healthcare, Telecom and Food & Beverage appear to be losing some of their allure in a relative context, with sentiment readings edging lower over the month. Investors are beginning to move onto a less defensive footing in terms of their European sector preferences. See page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 31-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 08 August 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Werden China-Aktien zum heißen Tipp?

Die sentix Konjunkturindizes warten aktuell mit überraschend positiven Indikationen auf. Die Erwartungswer-te rund um den Globus steigen – angeführt von der asiatisch-pazifischen Region. Dies ist umso bedeutender, als zum Beispiel heute noch Import-Export-Daten des Vormonats negativ von den Medien kommuniziert wurden. Die Anleger bei sentix sehen das anders. Dies gilt auch für den Aktienmarkt.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Aktien China

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sentix ASR Essentials 31-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 August 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Economic expectations supporting positive strategic bias on China

The latest sentix survey underlines the continued interplay between macro and market expectations. In the case of the Eurozone (EZ), the sentix Economic Expectations Index recovered from its post-Brexit shock, bouncing back from -2.0 to +4.8. This improvement in economic expectations can also be seen in investors’ views on markets, with economics seen as becoming a slightly less bullish theme for EZ bonds over the past month. Economic expectations are even more elevated for Asia ex-Japan, with the region’s expectations index hitting its highest level since June 2015 in August. This chimes with the continued increase in survey readings based on investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Chinese equities. Improving expectations on the economy continue to support investors’ constructive views on the Chinese market’s medium-term outlook (see Page 2 for charts).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 30-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 01 August 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Rohöl mit konstruktivem Sentimentsignal

Seit März bestand in Öl eine stark überkaufte Marktlage. Obwohl das sentix Risikoradar seit Wochen ein ho-hes Rückschlagrisiko signalisierte, kam erst ab Mitte Juni – nach dem Brexit – „Fahrt“ nach unten auf. Inzwi-schen hat Öl rund 20% vom Hoch verloren. Zeit, die negative Empfehlung zu überdenken.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Rohöl

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sentix ASR Essentials 30-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 31 July 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

High near-term neutrality chimes with low equity volatility

Despite a positive week for eurozone equity market performance, the latest Sentix survey suggests sentiment on the near-term prospects for markets has modestly deteriorated, even though survey readings based on investors’ strategic bias on markets have broadly held onto recent advances. This may reflect the heightened level of neutrality (or uncertainty) on the near-term outlook for markets that is also evident in the survey. High neutrality chimes with current low levels of implied equity volatility as measured by the likes of the VSTOXX (Chart 2, p2). With both measures looking stretched, there is a risk that volatility picks up in the near-term.

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