Superficial ease of tensions

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Tensions within the euro zone are easing in August. The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) has fallen -4.6 points to 15.7 points, hence, significantly below the “magic” 20 points threshold. Overall, investors believe that the risk of the euro zone falling apart has decreased as risk sensitiveness for the euro periphery had fallen simultaneously. Only the continuously weak condition of the Italian banking industry, as well as lacklustre economic dynamic in Europe, emit risks.

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sentix ASR Essentials 34-2016

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Investors remain constructive on equities

The latest sentix survey underlines that while respondents have become modestly pessimistic on the near-term outlook for equities, they remain positive on equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. This chimes with the monthly positioning data, which indicate that investors have moved to a modestly above average level of over-investment in European equities. On the emerging market equities front, investors also remain highly positive on China in terms of their medium-term strategic bias. It would appear that increased expectations of a US Fed rate-hike have done little to damage investors’ constructive view on equities medium-term outlook. See charts 3-4, p2).

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Emerging Markets Sentiment rises to three-year high

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The monthly sentix indicator measuring investors’ sentiment for emerging markets equities points towards rising stock indices. Investors continue to show an unbridled willingness to purchase emerging markets stocks as the sentix index marks the highest reading since three years ago. Developments of economic expectations and commodity prices fire investors’ imagination.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 33-2016

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Aktien-Setup weiter aussichtsreich

Für gewöhnlich zittern die Anleger in den Monaten August und September. Denn statistisch gehören diese in den letzten zwanzig Jahren zu den schwächsten Aktienmarktperioden bei DAX & Co. Dabei liegt dies weniger daran, dass es oft im Sommer zu Kursverlusten kommt, sondern daran, dass wenn es zu Kursverlusten kam, diese besonders groß ausfielen. Die aktuelle sentix-Ergebnisanalyse zeigt jedoch, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit für solche großen Verluste derzeit eher gering ist.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: DAX, EuroSTOXX, Rohöl, EUR-JPY

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sentix ASR Essentials 33-2016

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Positive strategic bias on China chimes with Commodity optimism

The latest sentix survey reveals some interesting sentiment developments on equities. On the developed markets front, survey participants’ strategic bias on the EuroSTOXX is continuing to revive from mid-summer lows. However, there are signs that investors have become a little less positive on the strategic outlook for US equities. This has seen the gap between strategic bias readings for the EuroSTOXX and S&P 500 bounce back from recent lows. On the emerging markets front, investors’ faith in the medium-term prospects for Chinese equities remains undiminished. This chimes with continued optimism on commodities as an asset class. EM equities and commodity sentiment remain closely linked (Charts 2-4, p2).

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