US-Mania - Setback for the Eurozone

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 December 2016
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix Economic Indices show as one of the first published leading indicators after the US election a remarkable shift in economic expectations. Investors entirely revise their expectations for the US economy and turn euphoric. Expectations jump by 20.5 points. Another beneficiary of the surprising US election result is Japan. The surge in the US Dollar causes the Japanese Yen to decline which should boost the export-driven economy. While the US, Japan and the sentix Global Aggregate Index benefit, only Europe trails behind. The headline index for the Eurozone slides 3.1 points. The Global Aggregate Index shows a plus of 3.1 points.

sentix ASR Essentials 48-2016

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 December 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Macro expectations bearish for Bunds and EZ versus US equities

The latest sentix survey Economic indices revealed a fall in eurozone economic expectations in December (down 4 points to 8.3) set against a post-US election jump in expectations for the US economy (the largest increase in US expectations in the survey’s history, at 20+ points). Such changes in economic expectations chime with investors’ less positive medium-term strategic bias on Eurozone (EZ) equities (see Chart 6, p3), as well as their negative implied bias on EZ versus US equities. In the case of bonds, economics are also seen as a notably bearish theme for Bunds, albeit investors have become a little less negative on the medium-term outlook for bunds as compared to a week ago (see Chart 9, p4). See Page 2 for charts.

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sentix Investmentmeinung 47-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 28 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

There are no translations available.

Gold-Sentiment verbessert, aber nicht gut genug?

Gold-Fans hatten die letzten Wochen nicht viel zu lachen. Entgegen der Erwartung vieler Marktteilnehmer, die bei einem Wahlsieg Trumps mit steigenden Gold-Notierungen rechneten, kam es völlig anders: Die Zinsen stiegen kräftig und Gold kam in der Folge gehörig unter Druck. Aus Sicht der sentix-Daten bestand das Problem jedoch in einem zu bullischen Sentiment vor der Wahl und einer zu offensiven Anlegerpositionierung. In beiden Sphären zeichnet sich eine Verbesserung ab.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: Keine

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

It is high time!

Written by Julien Mueller | 28 November 2016
Posted in sentix Euro Break-up Index News

The closer we approach the December 4th, the more does the Italian referendum occupy the minds of investors. Fears of more trouble in the Eurozone mount as Italy takes the spotlight in our monthly Euro Break-Index (EBI) survey. Surprisingly, Investors do not exclusively pick Italy as a potential exit candidate. Moreover, exit probabilities of many euro member countries are on the rise. Especially France and the Netherlands join ranks with Italy. The sentix EBI increases to 24.1%.

sentix ASR Essentials 47-2016

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 November 2016
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bias on Bonds and Gold increasingly negative

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors have become a little less pessimistic on the near-term outlook for bonds, while the substantial negative gap between investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Eurozone (EZ) bonds versus equities has also narrowed in the last couple of weeks. However, survey participants remain deeply downbeat on the medium-term prospects for bonds on both sides of the Atlantic, with monthly questions on investor positioning also pointing to below average levels of net over-investment in EZ bonds. In short, investors remain negative on bonds in the medium-term. This chimes with their increasingly negative strategic bias on Gold. Bonds remain unloved while Gold appears to be quickly losing its lustre for investors in a medium-term context (Charts 2-4, p2).