sentix ASR Essentials 37-2016

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Commodity caution yet to curb EM Equity optimism

While investors are becoming more pessimistic on the near-term outlook for equity markets, they remain upbeat on equities from a medium-term strategic perspective. On the emerging markets front, investors’ faith in the medium-term prospects for Chinese equities remains undiminished. This chimes with continued optimism on emerging market (EM) equities as an asset class. However, the latest monthly questions on asset classes also point to a weakening in sentiment towards commodities. A continued set-back in commodity sentiment would be a concern for EM equities given that sentiment on both asset classes remains closely linked (Charts 2-4, p2).

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sentix Investmentmeinung 36-2016

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US-Zinsmarkt sendet Fragezeichen

Zum Wochenschluss kam es an den US-Börsen zu einem starken Abverkauf. Begründet wurde dieser mit Zinserhöhungssorgen. Doch ein Blick auf die sentix-Daten verrät, dass diese Sorgen nicht von den sentix-Teilnehmern geteilt werden. Im Gegenteil. Wir messen sogar einen deutlichen Anstieg im Strategischen Bias zu US-Anleihen. Die Anleger sehen also in der aktuellen Zinsunruhe eher eine Chance, denn ein Risiko!

Geänderte Einschätzungen: US-Renten

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Little fear despite disappointment

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Investors sentiment towards German government long bonds chills. EZB’s preliminary decision not to expand monetary policy disappoints investors. However, fear among market participants such as in April/May 2015 is not present, yet.

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sentix ASR Essentials 36-2016

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A less positive strategic bias on US equities

A couple of interesting angles on equities emerge from the latest sentix survey. At a market level, while survey participants are becoming more positive on eurozone equity indices from a medium-term strategic perspective, they also appear to becoming more cautious on the US. In contrast to survey participants’ views on the DAX and EuroSTOXX, strategic bias readings on the S&P 500 have begun to retreat from recent highs. At a sector level, the latest survey also revealed that investors are becoming less pessimistic on Banks versus the market, even though they have become more downbeat on Financial Services and Insurance, while at the other end of the sentiment spectrum, investors have also become a little less positive on the relative outlook for Basic Resources. See page 2 for charts.

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sentix Switzerland and sentix Austria

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schweiz austriaBecause of the new sentix survey we can now offer new sentix time series for Switzerland and Austria!

Starting today, we are expanding the sentix database to indices for the following markets:

  • Austrian equities (large caps) / ATX
  • Swiss equities (large caps) / SMI
  • EUR-CHF exchange rate

For these markets the full range of sentix indicators is provided:

  • sentix Sentiment
  • sentix Strategic Bias
  • Neutrality Index
  • Overconfidence Index
  • Time Differential Index

Please note that charts only from the 16.9. onwards will be displayed because at least two data points are required.

Data on economic activity in Switzerland and in Austria have long been available by the sentix economic indicators.

For questions and comments please contact us.

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