sentix Survey results (45-2019)

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Consolidation enters next phase

For more than two months we have been stressing the need to consolidate the gold price. Although strategic confidence is high, investor positioning was too high even for this bias. Now basic confidence is suffering a significant setback. Investors are sensing an economic recovery and interest rates are rising. This is probably too much for the yellow precious metal in the short term and the consolidation is moving into the next phase.

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An exclamation mark of the first mover

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The global economy could go through an important low just these days. This is indicated by the latest data from the sentix economic indices. The overall index for Euroland rises by 12.3 points to -4.5, the expected values even jump by 14.5 points to their highest level since May 2019. Can the recession thus be averted? At any rate, hopes are pinned on new signs of recovery from China and the resilience of the US economy.

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sentix Survey results (44-2019)

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Loss of confidence in US bonds

The reaction after the last FED meeting is clear: US Treasuries are suffering a loss of confidence, the strategic bias for US Longbonds continues to tip over. Investors have hardly reacted to this in their portfolios yet. Although the COT data still show slight short quotas, a stronger adjustment would have been expected due to the bias decline. This could happen in the coming weeks.

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Investors increase their holdings

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A look at the investor positioning data measured by sentix shows that investors have increased their equity quotas in the last two months. A sub-investment has turned into an over-investment. How does this change the risk situation for equities?

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A quiet farewell

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The term of office of ECB President Mario Draghi was dominated by the struggle for the stability of the euro area. While the ECB was still confronted with serious doubts about stability in 2012, the situation has changed significantly to this day. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is close to its all-time low.

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