Massive global slump

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 August 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

Following the severe setback of the "first mover" in the previous month, there is now another, more pronounced economic slump in August. The global recovery comes to a halt. The sentix economic index for the eurozone fell by a whopping 6.6 points. The overall index now stands at -13.9 points, the lowest level since January 2024, with expectations falling even more sharply by 10.3 points. Germany in particular is in a nosedive. The overall index lost a whopping 12.0 points. The current assessment even deteriorated to -42.8 points, the worst value since June 2020! The expectations component plummeted to -18.5 points. The recession bells are ringing once again in Germany. Signs of fatigue are also evident in the USA: The overall index loses 9.0 points for the fourth time in a row. Expectations also indicate an accelerated slowdown. The rest of the world, including the Asian region, is lagging behind.

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sentix Survey results (30-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 July 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Selectivity increases

Investors are ending the past week with an ambivalent picture. Fear of equities is very high in the short term, while medium-term confidence is becoming even more selective. US techs and Asian equities in particular are showing considerable investor concerns about the bias trend. The issue of "negative sentiment momentum" is not off the table. Irritation is rising to an all-time high in EUR/USD.

Further results

• EUR/USD: All-time high in neutrality
• Gold & silver: an important ally
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (29-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 21 July 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Negative sentiment impulse

Sentiment indices on the equity side are plummeting worldwide. Fear is spreading and contrarian investors are pricking up their ears. Is it time for bargain hunters again? The answer is: No! The sentix data set fulfils the criteria for a negative sentiment impulse, which entails a general change in investor behaviour. This means that the current low in sentiment is not comparable with that of mid-April 2024 and should therefore be considered differently in terms of its impact.

Further results

• Bonds: Confidence as high
• Yen: Adjustment reaction started
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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sentix Survey results (28-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 July 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Risks continiue to increase

Although share prices in the USA are at all-time highs and even the long-neglected small caps showed signs of life over the course of the week, sentix data reveals a problematic development. Fundamental strategic confidence has collapsed significantly. At the typical seasonal point in the year, investors are evidently getting cold feet.

Further results

• Bonds: Positive signals
• Commodities: Precious metals and oil remain supported
• sentix sector sentiment

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Bitter setback

Written by Patrick Hussy | 07 July 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The recent recovery of the European economy has come to an abrupt end. After eight consecutive improvements, the sentix economic index for the eurozone fell by a whopping 7.6 points in July. Expectations slumped by 8.5 points to 1.5 points. The moderate economic momentum in Germany is also faltering again. The positive mood due to the European Football Championship 2024 is not spilling over into the economy. The already gloomy assessment of the situation deteriorated to -32.3 points, while expectations fell to -4.8 points below the April value. The French elections are contributing to the growing concern, as is the increasing slowdown in the US economy. The overall index for the US fell for the third time in a row to its lowest value since January 2024. Expectations are now also negative there at -2.5 points.

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