sentix Survey results (06-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 11 February 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

The year of the dragon has begun

The Chinese celebrate their New Year and welcome the "Year of the Dragon". In the last few trading days, shares there have performed a "reversal". This was very noticeable in the mid-caps (CSI 1000), following a broad-based sell-off in January 2024. Investors have recognized for some time that the price decline there represents an investment opportunity: The bias is emancipating itself and paints a completely different picture than for the other equity markets. On the sector side, the usual picture is emerging: investors are in love with pharmaceuticals and technology stocks.

Further results

• Equities: Overconfidence is also on the rise in the eurozone
• Bonds: Improved starting position
• sentix sector sentiment

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sentix Survey results (05-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 04 February 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

High-risk situation for US equities

Surprisingly, the renewed all-time high in the S&P 500 is not fuelling investor sentiment. On the contrary, sentiment is actually falling. This represents a clear negative sentiment divergence. Added to this is the high risk situation, as indicated by the Overconfidence Index and the sentix Risk Radar. US equities are therefore a "hot potato".

Further results

• Gold: Gold miners out of fashion beyond measure
• FX: Euro bias tilts
• sentix economic index: Monday, 05.02.2024, 10.30 CET

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Crisis in Germany remains stubborn

Written by Patrick Hussy | 04 February 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The sentix economic index for the eurozone rises by +2.9 points to -12.9 points in February, the fourth consecutive increase. Nevertheless, the recovery process remains sluggish. This is mainly due to Germany. The current assessment there fell to -39.3 points, while expectations recovered only sluggishly by 2.3 points. With the expectations component still at -14.0 points, the recession theme therefore remains. Internationally, there are increasing signs of recovery. The US region in particular is scoring well, with the overall index rising by 5.9 points to 12.1 points. Asia also continues to impress. The Asia ex Japan (China) region and Japan itself continue to try to develop economic momentum. As a result, the sentix Global Aggregate climbs to its highest level since February 2022.

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sentix Survey results (04-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 28 January 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

All-time high in US equity overconfidence

The technical condition of the stock markets is extremely robust. Nevertheless, the risks are increasing from the sentix analysis perspective. This applies above all to the US equity markets, where the overconfidence index has reached very high levels. Such a value indicates that the price development was so one-sided that investors are beginning to extrapolate trends. There are also interesting data changes to report for bonds and crude oil.

Further results

• Equities: Stall in the bias
• Crude oil: Further rise in underlying confidence
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (03-2024)

Written by Patrick Hussy | 21 January 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Vola increase displayed

The mix of high overconfidence, neutral sentiment and skeptical institutional investors is a warning sign for the US equity market. With new all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trying to draw investors into the markets. Investors are irritated and are flocking to the neutral camp, both in terms of sentiment and positioning behavior. A rise in vola is therefore indicated! There is also an unfavorable development in USD/JPY. (See also chart generator on our homepage www.sentix.co.uk )

Further results

• Equities: High overconfidence for US equities
• Bonds: First downward wave nears its end
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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